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No. 8 Ohio State (13-2) vs. No. 7 Notre Dame (14-1)
Date: Monday, January 20
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
To put a bow on the college football season, The Gaming Juice staff shares its favorite wagers for the College Football Playoff National Championship.
Brad Evans’ pick — SGP: Ohio State ML, Notre Dame +14.5 (+110, BetMGM)
Cue the sonic guitar sounds on any number of memorable Oasis tracks in the background. The alt-rock parlay play is totally back. That is, until the quarrelsome Gallagher brothers scrap, break up and ruin the much-anticipated reunion tour.
To hedge somewhat on my +800 ticket for the Irish to secure the title, moving the goalposts on the standard spread seems like a winning strategy. On paper, Ryan Day’s Buckeyes are the more impressive team. They rank No. 1 in EPA per play offense and No. 1 in EPA per play defense.
With future NFL All-Pro talent at wide receiver, an accurate QB under center and speed virtually everywhere, Ohio State should hoist the hardware. However, the Fightin’ Ruettigers won’t make it an uncontested layup.
Yes, Riley Leonard the passer will have to make plays, but Notre Dame’s No. 4 overall EPA D should competitively hold the line. Keep in mind: Touchdown Jesus is 13-2 ATS this season.
Nate Jacobson’s pick — Notre Dame team total UNDER 17.5 points (-112, FanDuel)
It’s likely that the matchup between Ohio State’s offense and Notre Dame’s defense will decide who covers this game. So if there’s something I feel confident about it’s the Buckeyes defense making it a struggle for the Irish to score points.
While the OSU offense rounded into form during this playoff run, defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has had his unit playing at a high level since a 32-31 regular-season loss to Oregon in October.
Ohio State should have an answer for Notre Dame’s one-dimensional offense, which is dealing with offensive line injuries and has star running back Jeremiyah Love coming off a knee injury. If the Buckeyes can take a lead, they will allow a defensive line of Jack Sawyer, JT Tuimoloau and Tyleik Williams to impose their will and give a lot of problems for QB Riley Leonard.
Just like it did against Tennessee, Oregon and Texas, OSU will hold Notre Dame under its team total.
Brandon Velaski’s pick — Emeka Egbuka OVER 57.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
I would be shocked if Notre Dame doesn't try to emulate what Texas did to slow down Jeremiah Smith. And with Carnell Tate’s big game (seven receptions, 87 yards) against the Longhorns, the Irish will be keeping tabs on him as well.
That paves the way for Emeka Egbuka, who caught five passes for 51 yards in the Cotton Bowl victory against Texas. The senior wide receiver also had seven catches for 96 yards in last season’s 17-14 win against the Fighting Irish.
Egbuka is the leader of the OSU receiving group, and he knows he must step up to close out his career with a national championship.
Ben Wittenstein’s pick — Mitch Jeter OVER 5.5 kicking points (+102, FanDuel)
Notre Dame’s playoff darling at plus money to make two field goals? Damn right, I’m in.
Jeter has converted two or more field goals in all three of the Irish’s playoff victories, and he has averaged 9.6 points per game over that stretch. He’s also hit over this number in nine of his 13 games this season.
If the Irish are going to have any shot at beating Ohio State, they’ll have to rely on their defense. That means a closer game is expected. And with a close game comes more field-goal opportunities for Jeter.
If this contest turns into a shootout — no problem. Jeter will have plenty of chances to kick extra points to get past this number.
There are lots of ways Notre Dame might need to kick the ball through the uprights, so at plus money, let’s ride!