NCAA Tournament projections: Brad Evans' Bracket Big Board

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For those interested in the Bracket Big Board methodology, please read the overarching premise here. Keep in mind, this isn't MY personal power rank, but rather what I believe the Committee's is.

Also, if you're curious about potential opening round matchups, just pair the top team in each seed range with the bottom team in the correlating seed range (e.g. top No. 2 seed vs. bottom No.15 seed).

Bracket Big Board: NCAA Tournament projections

Last Updated: April 6 2026 4:00 pm

Grp	Rank	Team	Conf	Rec	Net	Q1	SOS	AQ
1	1	Duke	ACC	35-3	1	19-3	9	*
Resembled the pre-ACCT Duke in 12-point disposal of Clemson. Held Tigers to 32.7% shooting.
	2	Arizona	Big 12	36-3	3	19-3	10	*
Only bolstered an already spectacular profile with yet another win against Arizona. B12T ... achieved.
	3	Michigan	Big Ten	36-3	2	21-3	1
Wolverines have the size and balance to hang a banner inside Crysler. PG depth, though, a downside.
	4	Florida	SEC	27-8	4	12-7	8
If their guard play is consistent, the Gators have the goods to repeat. Elite frontcourt. Blanketing defense.
2	5	Connecticut	Big East	34-5	10	11-3	52
UConn is far and away the most vulnerable No. 2 seed. 100+ eFG offense and defense last 30 says it all.
	6	Houston	Big 12	30-7	5	11-7	24
Formula under Sampson unchanged - D, rebounding, relentlessness. Still, offensive outages happen often.
	7	Iowa State	Big 12	29-8	6	9-8	28
Cyclones rip into the field playing top-shelf ball. Defense, stellar. Momcilovic, a 3-point maniac.
	8	Purdue	Big Ten	30-9	9	13-9	3	*
Purdue is one of the nastiest scoring teams in the nation, but D concerns remain evident.
3	9	Michigan State	Big Ten	27-8	11	11-7	20
Remain on the No. 2 line. Superb rebounding team. Plus defense. Fears at PG. Izzo strong.
	10	Illinois	Big Ten	28-9	8	10-9	21
Inconsistent D against quick Gs. Erratic offensive flow. Missed FTs. Wide variance of outcomes.
	11	Gonzaga	WCC	31-4	7	7-3	85	*
Didn't seize their first lead until 13-minute mark in second half vs. Santa Clara. Didn't look back.
	12	Nebraska	Big Ten	28-7	14	10-7	34
'Huskers have never won a NCAAT game. Can they make history? Slumped down the stretch.
4	13	Vanderbilt	SEC	27-9	13	10-8	16	*
Quick guards. Gunners galore. Vandy may be undersized, but a fantastic scoring team.
	14	Virginia	ACC	30-6	12	8-5	66
Advanced in the ACCT via a blend of terrific offensive execution, 3D and glass work against Miami.
	15	Arkansas	SEC	28-9	15	8-9	17
Brazile, Acuff and Thomas simply fill up the cup in droves. Weak on the glass, but O fires.
	16	Alabama	SEC	25-10	18	8-8	5
Defensive, leaky. Three-point shotmaking, prolific. Can outgun anyone, but weak front caps upside.
5	17	Texas Tech	Big 12	23-11	19	7-10	7
Though down JT Toppin and despite D issues, Tech can fill it up from outside. Over 50% of shots from three.
	18	Saint John's	Big East	30-7	16	6-6	62	*
Zuby zapped UConn in the Big East tourney final. Blocked shots, rebounds, points -- did it all.
	19	Kansas	Big 12	24-11	21	9-10	2
Horrendous offensive performance over last 30 days overshadows D tenacity. Early round beatable.
	20	Wisconsin	Big Ten	24-11	25	9-8	19
Never out of games due to three-point reliance and accuracy. Best backcourt in nation. Final 4 dark horse.
6	21	North Carolina	ACC	24-9	24	6-9	35
Void left by Wilson's absence quite clear last couple games. UNC will be fortunate to survive first weekend.
	22	Louisville	ACC	24-11	17	9-11	26
Hopeful Mikel Brown will be back and healthy in NCAAT. Frontcourt weak. Have to bombard threes.
	23	Tennessee	SEC	25-12	20	8-11	12
May have eliminated Auburn from NCAAT with monster 20-0 knockout punch in second half. D ... clamped.
	24	BYU	Big 12	23-12	23	7-11	13
BYU really a two man team on offense at the moment -- Dybantsa and Wright. D says brief NCAAT appearance.
7	25	Miami (FL)	ACC	26-9	32	6-7	72
The Hurricanes aren't quite a Category 5, but they're studs on the glass and from outside. Sneaky good.
	26	Kentucky	SEC	22-14	28	6-12	6
Difficult to predict team. Have solid size and guard play, but just painfully average in almost every metric.
	27	Saint Mary's College	WCC	26-6	22	1-5	94
Bucked by the Broncos in the WCCT semifinals, St. Mary's should land a single-digit seed with strong regular season.
	28	UCLA	Big Ten	24-12	30	5-9	30
Showed guts against Purdue. Sensational offensive team with off-the-ball speed, but Dent's calf clouds upside.
8	29	Clemson	ACC	24-11	34	6-7	57
Added seventh Quad 1 with close shave in ACCT. Quality wins along with No. 28 WAB implies 7 seed.
	30	Utah State	MWC	28-7	26	5-5	88	*
Aggies earn at-large bid showing athleticism and shotmaking. Just outside the top-50 overall on Torvik L30 days.
	31	Georgia	SEC	22-11	33	6-8	65
Bulldogs pack bite on offense, but 300+ eFG defense quite burdensome. Give up over 38% from distance.
	32	Ohio State	Big Ten	21-13	29	5-12	22
Buckeys found their rhythm in days leading up to the Dance. Experienced Gs and top-15 in efG% off last 30 days.
9	33	Saint Louis	A-10	28-6	31	3-2	135
The STL is an incredibly balanced team featuring Milk Chamberlain, but 140+ Torvik overall rank last 30 concering.
	34	Villanova	Big East	24-9	35	2-7	73
In a relatively down Big East, 'Nova is one of three at-large reps. Decent, but unspectacular. First round exit likely.
	35	TCU	Big 12	23-12	39	7-8	42
TCU wrapped up the pre-NCAAT slate 10-2 in its last 10. Exceptional on the glass. Peaking.
	36	Iowa	Big Ten	24-13	27	8-10	39
Hawkeyes are deliberately slow, but wonderfully efficient on offense thanks to Bennett Stirtz. Issues on D.
10	37	Texas A&M	SEC	22-12	44	6-9	61
Applied a flying elbow from the top rope against Kentucky. Splashed 13 threes, shooting 46.4%.
	38	Santa Clara	WCC	25-9	40	2-7	82
Oboye's around the rim improvements combined with precise 3s makes Broncos dangerous.
	39	North Carolina State	ACC	20-14	36	5-9	36
Wolfpack howl at the moon from outside. Shoot nearly 40% from three as a team. Weak on the glass, however.
	40	UCF	Big 12	21-12	51	5-9	43
Name likely to be called on Sunday, but no sure thing. Mid-40s WAB and other questionable metrics muddy waters.
11	41	VCU	A-10	28-8	43	3-5	99	*
Erased any NCAAT doubt by getting the A-10 auto and in convincing fashion. Deadly on offense.
	42	South Florida	American	24-9	45	2-4	106	*
The Bulls charge into the projected BBB field. Outstanding 6-3 road record. Fast paced and pound the glass.
	43	Miami (OH)	MAC	29-2	64	1-1	340
And the dream undefeated season ends in Round 1 of the MAC. Should avoid Dayton despite ugly metrics.
	44	Missouri	SEC	20-13	58	5-8	40
Dayton a realistic landing spot for the Tigers. Despite 4-5 mark over last month, a top-35 metrics team overall.
	45	SMU	ACC	20-14	37	4-9	58
Coughed up late lead against Louisville. Quad 1 wins and + WAB implies First Four appearance in Dayton.
	46	Texas	SEC	20-15	42	9-10	23
Turnovers plagued them in crippling BIg 12 tourney loss to Ole Miss. Bound to sweat through shirt on Sunday.
12	47	Akron	MAC	27-6	54	0-3	241
Akron the projected auto earner with Miami OH tossed in Round 1 of MAC tourney. Zips can zap a No. 5.
	48	McNeese	Southland	26-6	56	0-3	201	*
Definitively punked Stephen F. Austin in the Southland title game. Back to the Dance. All about forcing TOs.
	49	Northern Iowa	MVC	22-13	72	0-3	137	*
Panthers secured the auto bid as the No. 6 seed in Arch Madness. Slow, methodical and solid from three.
	50	High Point	Big South	28-5	75	1-1	363	*
Fleet of foot Panthers one of the fasted and most scoring prolific teams in the nation. Rank top-40 in eFG offense.
13	51	Hofstra	Coastal	22-11	88	0-2	230	*
The Pride roar into the field due in large part to their sharp 3-point shooting and OR efforts.
	52	▲Cal Baptist	WAC	25-8	98	0-2	215	*
The Lancers skewer opponents on the defensive end. Enter the Dance No. 15 in eFG% D nationally.
	53	Hawaii	Big West	22-9	101	0-1	316	*
Earning all of the Royal Hawaiian mai tais, the Warriors seriously lock down on D. Tuck inside top-5 in eFG D on year.
	54	Troy	Sun Belt	20-12	125	1-1	268	*
Seventh in the league on Torvik the last 30 days, the Men of Troy are dancing. No. 62 in OR% nationally.
14	55	North Dakota State	Summitt	24-8	114	0-1	350	*
Bison not worthy of a brioche bun. Grabbed the auto birth in the Summit. Gun threes and hit 35.7%.
	56	Wright State	Horizon	21-12	127	0-2	307	*
The Raiders didn't pull a Maxx Crosby. Took the Horizon auto. Shot 41.5% from three last 30 days.
	57	▲Penn	Ivy	17-12	139	0-3	183	*
Townsend, Aletan and Celiscar all currently All-Ivy on KenPom. Yale top-30 in all of D1 in pts/poss offense.
	58	▲Kennesaw State	CUSA	18-14	155	0-2	246	*
Hootie Hoo! The Owls grabbed the auto in CUSA behind No. 1 ranked defense in the league.
15	59	Tennessee State	OVC	20-10	172	0-3	322	*
State the first team to punch ticket for NCAAT winning the OVCT. Only third time in school history.
	60	Furman	Southern	19-13	186	0-2	333	*
Welcome to the party, Paladins. One of the hottest team in ths SoCon gets in. Shoot 56%+ from two.
	61	Siena	Metro	23-12	183	0-2	359	*
Saints are simply heavenly on defense. Suffocated Merrimack after the half. Top-65 eFG D on year.
	62	Queens	A-Sun	20-14	189	0-6	189	*
Kings of Queens ... North Carolina. Royals friendly on D, but rank top-20 in eFG% on offense nationally.
16	63	Idaho	Big Sky	18-15	145	0-1	294	*
The Fightin' Potatoes enter the projected field picture after Portland State's ousting. No. 8 DR% in D1.
	64	Long Island	NEC	24-11	198	0-3	317	*
Rod Strickland's Sharks Great Whites of NEC. Off. doesn't pack much bite, but performance on the glass a strength.
	65	UMBC	AmEast	22-9	196	0-2	352	*
Familiar giant slayers, the Retrievers have listed a leg on opponents down the stretch. Shoot 80.1% at FT line.
	66	Howard	MEAC	20-11	203	0-3	327	*
Locked in at No. 1 in eFG offense in the MEAC Bryce Harris and the Bison have the scoring chops.
	67	Lehigh	Patriot	16-17	275	0-2	319	*
Sinking of the Midshipmen has the Fightin' CJ McCollum's at the forefront. Battle Boston for the auto.
	68	Prairie View A&M	SWAC	15-18	300	0-4	300	*
Improbably, the Panthers become the lowest SWACT seed ever to reach the NCAAs. Hello, Dayton.

First Four OUT: San Diego State, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Auburn *Data updates overnight

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