Multiple times each week, The Gaming Juice’s resident action seeker, Brad Evans, will attempt to blast the ‘books with his favorite selections on sides, totals, props, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — but that’s up to you.
Sledgehammer Special — SGP: Colorado +6.5, Game OVER 142.5 (+100, MGM)
Razor-thin ice. That’s how precarious Colorado’s footing stands with its NCAA Tournament chances. One fateful maneuver, no matter how subtle, and the Buffaloes will fall through, sinking their stock into the NIT.
As previously outlined, CU must navigate its two-game Oregon Trail stretch uninhibitedly. If stricken by snake poison, cholera or excessive bowel movements (damn you, dysentery!), its Big Dance hopes will come down to what occurs in Las Vegas at the Pac-12 Tournament.
Wake Forest already fell by the wayside with a resume-killing home loss to Georgia Tech on Tuesday. On Thursday against Oregon, an opponent which still qualifies as a Quadrant 1, will Colorado ultimately fail or merely tempt fate?
[ Bracket Big Board: Brad Evans’ NCAA Tournament projections ]
Since Feb. 1, the Buffaloes have stampeded toward respectability. According to BartTorvik, they’re a borderline top-40 overall team. In their past nine games, they’re No. 31 nationally in effective field-goal percentage offense, converting 53.8% from two and a dynamite 40.3% from three. They’ve also shot 78.4% from the free-throw line this season.
Defense is a noticeable downside (No. 208 in eFG D last month), but crashing the glass with considerable success and being on the right side in four straight, Colorado has overcome the inadequacy.
The Ducks, meanwhile, have recently turned into foie gras. At No. 84 overall per BartTorvik since Feb. 1, they’re universally mediocre. Glancing at the metrics, they’re No. 274 in eFG offense and No. 212 in eFG defense over that span. Though 12-2 in the dense forest of Matthew Knight Arena, the advanced numbers paint a very “mid” profile.
For the Buffs to acquire a desperately needed Quad 1 victory, they must limit the self-inflicted wounds. Evidenced by their No. 269 ranking in offensive turnover percentage, they have often bombed Basketball 101 exams. Still, CU’s ability to light up the scoreboard and Oregon’s spiraling defense (No. 10 in Pac-12 in eFG D) point this bettor in hopefully the right direction.
In Eugene, Tad Boyle’s bunch ford the river and avoid catastrophe.
Season record: 12-10, +2.68 units
BONUS TIME — 2-leg (alt): Arizona -4.5, Utah -1.5 (+102, DraftKings)