For individuals of a certain generation, the Oregon Trail game, played by this fortysomething on an antiquated, box-style Macintosh Classic as a youth, was in-school entertainment at its finest.
The premise: Load up your wagon in Independence, Missouri, travel across the Great Plains and reach your Oregonian destination, hopefully dodging Native American attacks, snake bites, pesky pestilence and river sinkings along the way.
Oh, the dysentery. So much intestinal infection. Game. Over.
For a pair of Pac-12 teams eyeing an NCAA Tournament at-large berth, they’re hopeful the Beaver State trek isn’t filled with similar treachery.
[ Bracket Big Board: Brad Evans’ NCAA Tournament projections ]
Both Utah and Colorado finish the conference regular season with road matchups against Oregon and Oregon State. Both must win those games. Both squarely sit on the bubble.
Are the Utes and Buffalos worth the gamble on March Madness futures? Here are my thoughts, minus the measles.
UTAH UTES
- To make the NCAA Tournament: +150 (DraftKings)
- Not to make the NCAA Tournament: -195 (DraftKings)
- NET ranking: 46
- Strength of schedule: 37
- Quad 1 record: 4-7
- Projection: First Four OUT
Utah anxiously awaits its Bracket Big Board invitation. Debated heavily alongside Saint John’s, Villanova and others to replace the likes of Wake Forest and Colorado, the Utes are without question knocking on the door.
Craig Smith’s club owns strong vitals. With only one bad loss on the resume (a Quad 3 home defeat to Arizona State), it boasts quality wins and a top-30 non-conference strength of schedule in which it upended forecasted NCAA Tournament teams Wake Forest, Saint Mary’s, BYU and Washington State.
An uneventful offense and often mistake-ridden execution explain why the Utes have played .500 ball since Feb. 1. Still, if they cut through the Oregon on-court forest, crush in Corvallis and win one to two games in the Pac-12 Tournament, they should hear their name called on Selection Sunday.
COLORADO BUFFALOES
- To make the NCAA Tournament: -185 (DraftKings)
- Not to make the NCAA Tournament: +150 (DraftKings)
- NET ranking: 30
- Strength of schedule: 83
- Quad 1 record: 1-5
- Projection: Last team IN
The Buffs have one hoof over the cliff. According to The Bracket Matrix, this hair-challenged bracketologist is one of the 41 (out of 104) who has Deion Sanders U. IN the NCAA Tournament — but barely.
Just how will the Selection Committee weigh CU’s handsome NET? If significantly, it raises the odds. However, the recently introduced measurement, which replaced the RPI, is widely considered a sorting tool.
Grabbing a victory at Oregon would double the Buffaloes’ Quad 2 victories, a necessary acquisition. If they manage that, blast the Beavers and advance two bracket lines in Vegas, they’ll likely carve out a spot.
Unlike Utah and many other Bubbleville residents, Colorado doesn’t own any harmful Quad 3 or Quad 4 blemishes. Its biggest concerns: 1) lack of Q1 wins, 2) No. 250 non-conference SOS and 3) 2-7 record in true road games.
Candidly, this on-the-fence prognosticator really wants to move the Buffs out of the field. Give me a reason, Tad Boyle. If the ammunition for a demotion is supplied, which is a distinct possibility, +150 for that dismissal to occur is awfully enticing.
How would you handicap the NCAA Tournament prospects for Utah and Colorado? Give your two cents in the comments section below.