Island NFL games bring in the numbers -- and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks. As always, fade or follow -- that’s up to you.
The Pick: Matthew Stafford OVER 2.5 pass TDs (+147, DraftKings)
Every year my 79-years-young mother who lives nearby delivers a menagerie of belt-busting confections. The wonderful assortment of homemade cookies is a holiday tradition. It’s highly desired. It’s quickly consumed. And after the last morsel is digested, workout sessions are promptly warranted.
If only this forty-something had the energy and restraint of a certain MVP frontrunner (-350 at BetMGM).
Mom hooked up the Christmas cookie motherlode.
— Brad Evans (@NoisyHuevos) December 21, 2025
Time to get Philip Rivers carved. pic.twitter.com/PdflWAmvt6
At 37, the svelte Stafford is having arguably his finest season to date.
Monday night in Atlanta, bank on him adding to the Most Valuable argument.
Even down Davante Adams, the distinguished veteran is poised to tear up a flightless Falcons defense. Since Week 10, Atlanta ranks a painfully mediocre No. 18 in dropback EPA defense. Over their last five games, they’ve allowed 6.69 pass yards per attempt, 228.8 passing yards per game and eight total touchdowns to QBs. Amplifying the tepidness, Raheem Morris’ highest ranking CB, Mike Hughes, checks in at No. 71 in pass coverage grade on Pro Football Focus. Again, the only flavor on the menu in the A-T-L is vanilla.
Whether on quick-cut curls or real-estate-consuming streaks, Stafford has spun precise spirals. Though a surprising No. 25 in adjusted completion percentage, he’s inside the top eight in deep-ball and red-zone completion percentages. Also No. 1 in total air yards and top five in passer rating versus zone or man, he’s slashed through secondaries routinely. Crazily, he’s tossed at least three touchdowns in eight of his last 12 games.
Atlanta may not be outwardly tanking like the Raiders (See the Maxx Crosby drama), but it has absolutely nothing to play for other than ruining its NFL Draft position. Unmotivated and mostly unimpressive, the Falcons give up their fifth three-TD passer of the season.
In the Year of the Ancient Quarterback, Stafford feeds the narrative one more time before the ball drops on 2025.
NO CONTEXT PARLAY PLAY: SGP - Puka Nacua 70+ rec yards, Konata Mumpfield 2+ receptions, Bijan Robinson 3+ receptions, Blake Corum 30+ rush yards (+148, theScore)