The Gaming Juice’s resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours the ‘books to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
(Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 = 1.15 units wagered)
1. Mike Evans OVER 58.5 receiving yards vs. Dolphins (-115, BetMGM) -- Physically, he may not sport a holly-jolly body type, but don't dismiss the holiday magic this writer's cousin possesses. In a must-win game for a Tampa team in a heated playoff race with Carolina, the future HOFer is sure to deliver during this most wonderful time of the year. Hardly slapping their tails, the Dolphins enter the week a mediocre No. 17 in dropback EPA since Week 10. Expanding out over the entire season, they've allowed the second-fewest WR yards. Consistent negative game scripts largely explain that appreciable ranking. In 15 games, only eight wideouts have crossed the 60-yard mark against them. Expectations may lower, but slated to draw CB Jack Jones most often in coverage, Evans should win ample opportunities. On 491 coverage snaps, the Dolphins DB has given up a 65.1% catch rate and a 114.3 passer rating to his assignments. As his 14.4 aDOT (WR12) indicates, Baker Mayfield's WR1 is still a deep-ball featured weapon. Earning over 36% of the team's air yards share, the lucrative Buc eclipses 59 receiving yards for only the second time in seven games. YARR!!!
BetAlytics Projection: 86.66 receiving yards
2. James Cook anytime TD vs. Eagles (+110, DraftKings) -- The Wolfgang Puck of running backs is about to carve a perfectly presented roast beast. Let the master chef work, Grinch. This prop available at plus odds is rather stunning. For starters, the Eagles are a modest No. 13 in rush EPA defense since Week 10. Over their last five matchups, the reigning Super Bowl champs have surrendered a massive 5.66 yards per carry, 119.2 rush yards per game and five combined touchdowns to RBs. Cook is a bloodhound. Relentless in his end-zone pursuits, he's wired to score. With 53 red-zone touches (RB6) on the season, he's recorded at least one touchdown in nine of 15 games. Dynamite on a per touch basis, he enters the week No. 15 in YAC per attempt (3.18) and No. 3 in total missed tackles forced (58). Josh Allen poaches near the goal line always enhances the risk, but given the exploitable matchup and his general consistency, Cook is seemingly bound to reach a boiling point. Slice the Birds on belly runs, James.
BetAlytics Projection: 51.0% TD chance
3. Jonathan Taylor OVER 15.5 receiving yards vs. Jaguars (-115, BetMGM) -- Short-arming passes all over the yard, Philip Rivers largely packs a pea shooter at 44 years young. Though lacking firepower, the veteran QB has still proven accurate, completing 66.1% of his attempts. The distinguished passer lives in the 0-15 yard range, shot-putting balls on quick slants and over-the-middle dump-offs. As a result, Taylor has become an underneath favorite. Over the last two games with Rivers at the controls, he hauled in a combined six receptions for 47 yards. On pace to set a career high in receiving yards, Taylor has become a reliable short-field option. Averaging 26.1 routes run per game, he's reeled in 87.5% of his intended looks and tallied 8.6 yards per catch. Pass-catching backs have logged considerable success against Jacksonville this season. In 15 games, the Jags have allowed the ninth-most receiving yards to RBs (36.1 per game). In total, a dozen plowshares have crossed the threshold needed against them. Catchless in his first clash against the AFC South rival, Taylor grabs at least 16 yards in the rematch.
BetAlytics Projection: 18.26 receiving yards
4. Tony Pollard OVER 15.5 rush attempts vs. Saints (+100, BetMGM) -- Jose Feliciano's Christmas classic 'Feliz Navidad' is this mall Santa's ultimate holiday jam. When played this time each year, the volume is cranked as this glass-shattering voice sings along. Very few wanna wish any Tennessee Titan a Merry Christmas. Though his team's record has remained well south of the border, Pollard has provided northerly numbers. In his last three contests, he's topped 100 rush yards in each and scored three total touchdowns. Most impressively over the stretch, he's tallied 3.77 yards after contact per attempt and forced a missed tackle on 20.0% of his carries. Outside of Minnesota, no team has been run on more than New Orleans. Opponents are averaging 25.9 rush attempts per game against it. More competitive in recent weeks, the Titans have called "run" 51.9% of the time over their last three matchups. In a highly likely tight affair -- the Saints are favored by only 2.5 points -- Pollard lives a blue collar life. For the third time in his last four games, he grips the pill at least 18 times.
BetAlytics Projection: NA
5. Ja'Marr Chase OVER 89.5 receiving yards vs. Cardinals (-115, BetMGM) -- Arguably the AFC's finest wide receiver, Chase is a $50 scratch-off ticket with high odds of cashing, Grab a quarter, get to work and unveil the potential payoff. The three-consecutive-crowns play should have backers fist-pumping in celebration. In what could be the highest-scoring game of the week, ridiculous numbers are sure to rack. His projected primary assignment, CB Denzel Burke, has only surrendered a 56.1% catch rate and 46.7 passer rating, but Arizona as a collective has given up four 100-yard WR performances. Most promsig, since Week 10 only Washington ranks lower in dropback EPA defense. Even your great grandma is familiar with Chase's elite skills. On a downright stupid 11.9 targets per game, he's top 10 among all NFL wideouts in total air yards, yards after catch and expected points added. Hitting 90 or more yards in 60% of contests this season, Chase is sure to gobble up opportunities against one of the friendliest secondaries in the league. As the BetAlytics projection suggests, laddering him to 120+ receiving yards isn't likely a ticket bust.
BetAlytics Projection: 128.60
Season record: 34-34, +1.99 units