Island NFL games bring in the numbers -- and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks. As always, fade or follow -- that’s up to you.
The Pick: Pat Bryant OVER 20.5 receiving yards at Commanders (-115, BetMGM)
As any sports card collector can attest, there’s no greater thrill than cracking a pack and pulling that one-of-one autographed insert. The emotion. The rush. The exuberance. The instant windfall.
The endorphin surge is similar to gamblers riding a potentially lucrative bet.
Bryant is that one-in-10000 signed game-used jersey refractor.
At initial glance, the first-year Illinois product is only collectible in the deepest of fantasy leagues. His advanced metrics and surface numbers are tofu bland. However, dig down and there are some spicy tendencies. Most appetizing, he's top-20 among all qualifying wideouts in yards per target (9.2) and yards per reception (15.4). Playing at least 50% of team snaps in four straight, he's reached blackjack in receiving yards in four of his last five -- including a season-high 82 yards Week 11 versus Kansas City.
Washington is a bloated corpse defensively. Beaten down by injuries and ineptitude, the Commanders enter Week 13 bottom barrel (No. 32) in dropback EPA D. This season, they've allowed the fifth-most WR yards. In total, 29 wide receivers -- 2-9!!! -- have reeled in what's needed against Dan Quinn's crew.
Dissecting the matchup, Bryant's projected primary assignment, SCB Noah Igbinoghene, has yielded a 70.0% catch rate, 17.6 yards per reception and 111.7 passer rating on 58 coverage snaps. Scrumptious.
Exceptional on over-the-middle slant routes, Bryant is a once-catch-cash (OCC) candidate. His slick separation skills and Bo Nix's growing confidence in him have gone underreported outside the Mile High City.
Whether on the prop above or chucking a deep heave at WR3 in fantasy, the rising rookie is worth the gamble. It's become clear and obvious, the man simply thrives in any brand of Orange and Blue.
NO CONEXT PARLAY PLAY: SGP - Broncos ML, Bo Nix 2+ pass TDs, Zach Ertz 20+ receiving yards (+146, ESPN Bet)