Primetime NFL games bring in the numbers -- and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow -- that’s up to you.
The Pick: Aaron Rodgers OVER 217.5 pass yards (-113, DraftKings)
Similar to constantly running commercials featuring Glenn Powell in seemingly every streaming show or blockbuster film, Aaron Rodgers primetime games are relentlessly shoved down our throats.
We get it. He’s arguably the greatest still-active quarterback in the game -- a revered player with numerous accolades and accomplishments. His off-the-field escapades, however, oversaturates the profile. Candidly, a five-gallon pail of ayahuasca would be required for this NetFlix viewer to endure even one minute of ‘Enigma.’
Though looking closer to 71 than 42 years-ancient, Rodgers is still slinging it with the velocity of someone nearly half his age. As witnessed in standout efforts against the Jets, Bengals and his former employer (Green Bay), the graybeard’s skillset hasn’t substantially deteriorated. The advanced data concurs.
Examining the overall profile, Rodgers is top-10 in adjusted completion percentage on Pro Football Focus. Most remarkable, he’s completed 72.2% of his red-zone attempts, tops in the league. He’s also picked apart zone defenses, evidenced by his 75.5% completion rate versus the scheme.
Jesse Minter’s defense is steeped in a man-based concept, but it does zone 62.5% of the time. No matter the look, expect the venerable quarterback to read, react and strike, accurately.
Transparently, it’s not the most exploitable on-paper matchup. The Chargers enter the primetime matchup No. 7 in dropback EPA defense, giving up only 6.38 pass yards per attempt and 192.9 pass yards per game to opposing QBs. This season, only three passers -- Patrick Mahomes, Jayden Daniels and Daniel Jones -- have reached 218 pass yards against them.
Still, given the woeful inconsistencies of the Soft Curtain D and high-voltage nature of Justin Herbert’s offense, a high-volume game in the mid-to-high 20s could break out. Our friends at BetAlytics agree, handing out a three-star rating on the OVER at 45.5.
Now 10 weeks into the regular season and with another island game on the horizon (December 15th versus Miami), Pittsburgh’s spotlight seeker should continue to display an active arm.
With the contest in Los Angeles, we just pray Powell won’t make a cutaway cameo.
NO CONTEXT PARLAY PLAY: SGP - Justin Herbert 20+ rush yards, Keenan Allen 3+ receptions, Jaylen Warren 2+ receptions (+137, ESPN Bet)