The Gaming Juice’s resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours the ‘books to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
(Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 = 1.15 units wagered)
1. SGP: De'Von Achane 40+ rush yards, 25+ receiving yards vs. Bills (+112, DraftKings) -- If there's a particular weakness that will prevent the Bills from reaching their postseason goals in what seems like a WIDE OPEN field in the AFC, its their gashable ground defense. Punctured repeatedly by opposing rushing attacks, Buffalo hasn't earned their wings in the trenches. Ahead of its Sunday clash with the division rival Dolphins, Sean McDermott's men are No. 29 in rush EPA D, yielding a ridiculous 5.10 yards per carry and 107.6 rush yards per game to opposing plowshares. This season, seven RBs -- including Achane in Week 3 -- have raced past 40 rush yards against them. Throw in a likely negative game script and Miami's Swiss Army knife should cut and slash through the opposition without much resistance. For the third time this season, Achane achieves both feats in the same game for the third time.
BetAlytics Projection: 67.16 rush yards, 32.35 receiving yards
2. Jameson Williams OVER 42.5 receiving yards at Commanders (-115, MGM) -- It's taken an eternity for Williams to regain relevancy. Hell, the time between 'Stranger Things' seasons seems shorter (Spoiler alert: Seven is now a suburban mother of three). Still, if last week's 4-66-1 line is an indication of what's to come, the number oddsmakers tossed out this week against a battered and bruised Commanders secondary is downright criminal. This fall, Washington is No. 29 in dropback EPA defense, allowing the second-most wide receiver yards of any NFL team. Overall, a massive 15 wideouts have accumulated 43 or more yards against them. With CB Marshon Lattimore on IR (ACL), the downtrodden group will only bring more gloom. Expected to match up with promoted backup Jonathan Jones (118.1 passer rating allowed), Williams is in a prime position to erupt. Keep in mind, the Lions blazer is No. 6 in average depth of target (16.9) and No. 6 in yards per catch (16.9). Chunk gains are his thing. Make their noses bleed, Jameo.
BetAlytics Projection: 65.50 receiving yards
3. Jaxson Dart anytime TD at Bears (+200, ESPN) -- Optimism is running high in Chicago after last week's miraculous shootout win in Cincinnati. After all, Bears fans have thirsted for a winner for years. Ben Johnson does have his team on a playoff path, but the hype must be tempered. The offense is rolling, but defensively Dennis Allen's unit remains in park. Through nine weeks, the Windy City reps are No. 22 in dropback EPA D, giving up a sky-high 8.24 pass yards per attempt and 21 total touchdowns to QBs. Sliding out on a short limb, Dart should carve them up, paving the way for his legs to make a house call. An avid runner, the rookie passer has averaged 1.8 red-zone rushers per game, crossing the chalk in four straight. Chicago hasn't allowed a QB rush TD since Week 1, but it has given up the 12-most ground yards to the position. Bank on Dart's scoring streak to continue.
BetAlytics Projection: 37% chance to score a TD
4. Breece Hall UNDER 63.5 rush yards vs. Browns (-115, MGM) -- Hall isn't the happiest of campers. Pranksters ran his drawers up the flagpole, held his beloved teddy bear hostage and relegated him to table time with Tucker -- the guy whose emitted stench malfunctions olfactory nerves. After he was denied jettisoning elsewhere at the trade deadline, the disgruntled still-Jet expressed his displeasure on social media. Given his psychological state motivational questions are warranted. Complicating matters, his turnstile offensive line has a tall task this week against a ferocious Browns front seven. This season, only Seattle ranks higher in rush EPA D. Overall, the Browns have given up only 77.3 rush yards per game and 3.68 yards per carry to RBs. In total, only three rushers have cracked the 60-yard mark against them. Sure to slam into numerous stacked fronts, Hall finishing south of the number above for the sixth time this year feels inevitable.
BetAlytics Projection: 65.78 rush yards
5. Isaiah Likely OVER 2.5 receptions at Vikings (+140, MGM) -- Lamar Jackson's return to the lineup was akin to Cobra Kai rebooting the Karate Kid franchise with the original cast. The brand can only work with the ones that made it famous. No surprise, Jackson immediately jumpstarted the Ravens vertical attack, feeding his wide receivers and tight ends -- Likely included. Mark Andrews' sidekick lured a season-high four targets, catching three passes for 60 yards. Given his route versatility and general reliability, the overlooked weapon should again receive a decent targets dose from No. 8. The Vikings aren't fond of covering plus-sized weapons largely due to their zone deployment. This season, they've featured the scheme 75.5% of the time, the 11th-highest in the league. Most convincing, Minnesota has allowed 6.3 receptions per game to the position since Week 5. Give this value-seeking bettor ALL THE PLUS MONEY! Sweep the leg, Isaiah.
BetAlytics Projection: 2.23 receptions
Season record: 18-20, -1.15 units