The Gaming Juice’s resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours the ‘books to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
(Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 = 1.15 units wagered)
1. Patrick Mahomes 30+ rush yards at Bills (+100, ESPN Bet) -- The revered passer isn't exactly a textbook runner. His uncomfortable form would never earn him a podium spot in an Olympic sprint. Always scurrying as though nature is loudly calling, he's still effective when tucking and running. Second only to Isiah Pacheco in team rush yards, the multi-time MVP has made the mad dash to 30 yards five times this season. Entering Week 9, he's averaged 5.8 rush attempts per game, 4.3 of the scramble variety. His off-the-charts football IQ fuels the leg-spin need. Reactive to what the defense gives him, he almost always takes advantage. Due to Buffalo's high-pressure tendency (27.0 pocket pressure%), signal callers have steadily flushed and picked up yards in the open field. This season, only the Dallas Cowboy have given up more rush yards to QBs. In total, passers are averaging 31.1 rush yards per game against them. Heck, benched Spencer Rattler racked 49 ground yards against them. Make us money, Mahomes.
BetAlytics Projection: 32.92
2. Travis Etienne UNDER 62.5 rush yards vs. Raiders (-110, BetMGM) -- The Jags ball carrier is the Tootsie Roll of running backs. Some love him. Others don’t. While the undecided are generally indifferent about what he brings to the table, he occasionally has his moments. Still, the per game outputs are largely forgettable. Untrustworthy in fantasy circles this week, Etienne is slated for a mediocre return. The Raiders are mostly repugnant, but their one saving grace is bottling up backs in the trenches. This season, Pete Carroll's club is No. 6 in rush EPA defense, conceding a modest 4.01 yards per carry and 81.3 rush yards per game to rushers. Overall, Jeremy McNichols and Jonathan Taylor are the only plowshares to race past the number above. Terribly mundane over the past several weeks, Etienne has hit the under on 62.5 in four of his last five matchups. Toss in his uninteresting 17.5% missed tackle rate and 0.65 rush yards over expected and betting the UNDER becomes unavoidable.
BetAlytics Projection: 53.45
3. Rico Dowdle 60+ rush yards at Packers (+127, DraftKings) -- It seems clear Panthers head coach Dave Canales has finally seen the light. After last week's demolition suffered at the hands of the Buffalo Bills, the observant sideline barker described Dowdle's performance as "exceptional." His sorely needed epiphany could finally tile the scales in the RBBC, giving for high-performing Rico a decisive touch advantage. Though some trade rumors have swirled about Chuba Hubbard ahead of next week's trade deadline, it's unlikely the veteran will change locales. The perpetual thorn will stay lodged in some form and fashion. Most damning, Green Bay is favored by 13.5 at BetMGM, meaning a negative game script should be anticipated. Still, could reach the 60-yard mark in the first half alone. As his top-10 standing in YAC per attempt proves, he's the picture of efficiency. The Packers are No. 10 in rush EPA D, yielding 3.81 yards per carry and 70.3 rush yards per game to RBs. Still, if he receives 14+ carries, he should have this demanding gamer feeling ecstatic. Show off the suave, Rico.
BetAlytics Projection: 79.31
4. Samaje Perine UNDER 30.5 rush yards vs. Bears (-115, BetMGM) -- Recency bias is an addictive drug even oddsmakers fall victim to. Just a couple weeks ago, Perine rush yard lines -- if you could find them -- were generally in the 9.5-to-12.5 range. However, with his workloads creeping northward in three straight and after rumbling for 94 ground yards last week versus New York's single-engine Cessnas, the offered number has understandably jumped. With Chase Brown firmly in the mix and given Joe Flacco's in-flux status (shoulder), a proper Perine FADE is in order. Yes, this numbers nerd finds his league-leading 4.35 YAC per attempt and 35.5 missed tackle% unzip worthy, but his matchup against a stiffening Bears front must be respected. Since Week 6, Dennis Allen's tightening bunch ranks No. 8 in rush EPA defense, allowing only 3.76 yards per carry 72.7 rush yards per game to RBs this season. Perine's arrow is pointing north and he should tally 6-8 grips, but uncertainty at QB, Cincy's rickey offensive line and the unfavorable matchup suggest a low-20s finish. Keep in mind, he's topped the above number twice all season.
BetAlytics Projection: 25.12
5. Kimani Vidal OVER 74.5 rush yards (-115, BetMGM) -- A 53-years young Natrone Means could once agin wear the lightning bolt, stretch out his aged frame and blast through Titans arm tackles without breaking a sweat. Hell, this tequila-carved dad bod could do the same. Tennessee -- No. 27 in rush EPA defense on the season -- has surrendered a wonderfully accommodating 5.08 yards per carry and 119.4 rush yards per game to RBs. In total, four rushers have reached or surpassed 75 ground yards against them. Vidal is a beer keg with feet. At 5-foot-8 (Possibly in platform shoes) and 218 pounds, he's a lower-center-of-gravity back who's impressively burrowed through lines. He's raced past the number above in two of his last three games, totaling a rock solid 3.04 yards after contact per attempt. With Hassan Haskins a giant question mark (hamstring) and Jaret Patterson only a breather back, he's a strong candidate for another 20-plus touches. He shouldn't come up foamy.
BetAlytics Projection: 64.81
Season record: 16-17, +0.10 units