Primetime NFL games bring in the numbers -- and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow -- that’s up to you.
The Pick: Cade Otton OVER 41.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)
When you gaze upon the matchup and the associated total (55.5), dopamine levels automatically spike.
The Lions may rank appreciably in dropback EPA D on the season (No. 13) and they only run zone schemes the 26th-most times in the league, but Dan Campbell’s crew has allowed 4.8 receptions and 52.6 yards per game to TEs. No, they’re not the Dallas Cowpokes, but without headhunter Brian Branch in the defensive backfield, the jungle kings are a vulnerable bunch.
Tampa’s decimated WR room also enhances the chances.
Is Keyshawn Johnson still in game shape? What about Joey Galloway? Heck, Mark Carrier surely can still run quick slants at 59 years young. Suffice it to say, The Buccaneers receiving corps — missing several noteworthy route runners — is rather depleted.
Mike Evans is set to return and the Johnsons (Kameron and Tez) pack arousing upside, but Otton is likely to earn the biggest target spike. Over the past couple games, a noticeable surge in his usage has occurred. Against Seattle and San Francisco, he combined for 50 routes, 11 targets, nine receptions and 132 yards.
He only eclipsed the proposed number in those matchups, but with Evans working back into the mix along with Chris Godwin (fibula) out and Emeka Egbuka (hamstring) possibly sidelined (He's now playing. Bionic man!), the savvy TE practically a layup for another five-plus targets. At TE9 in average yards of separation per target and netting a healthy 11.1 yards per catch, he’s a strong tail -- especially in a game with considerable shootout appeal.
For the third-straight week, Otton eclipses the half-century mark.
Rock the alternative number.
NO CONTEXT PARLAY PLAY: Baker Mayfield 200+ pass yds, Jared Goff 2+ pass TDs, Zach Charbonnet UNDER 40.5 rush yds (+238, BetMGM)