The Gaming Juice’s resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours the ‘books to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
(Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 = 1.15 units wagered)
1. Ashton Jeanty 75+ rushing yards vs. Titans (+100, BetMGM) -- After a whopping two game sample size, there were quick-trigger nincompoops who quickly wrote off Jeanty's ability. Some even compared him to RB bust Trent Richardson. Oh, the stupid need for instant gratification. Those who appropriately exercised patience are seeing the dividends roll in. In his last two weeks, the highly sought after rookie accumulated a mere 264 combined yards and three touchdowns. Most awesome, he's tallied a sensational 3.82 yards after contact per attempt and 22 missed tackles forced. Both marks rank inside the top-10 among all qualifying running backs. This week, the Raiders rusher should run roughshod through arguably the worst run defense in the league. The Titans enter the week No. 27 in rush EPA D, allowing 5.15 yards per carry and 122.6 rush yards per game to RBs. On a likely 17+ ground grips and in what should be a positive game script, Jeanty steamrolls Tennessee. Let this be a reminder why the tortoise always wins the race.
BetAlytics Projection: 75.59
2. Christian McCaffrey OVER 49.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM) - Forget widgets, the CMC Football Factory almost exclusively cranks out catches. Though injuries have sacked the Niners receiving corps, the long-thought fragile back has notched a sizable string of safe days multiple weeks into the season. Whether Brock Purdy or the Two-Face suited Mac Jones under center, the RB1 racks the receptions. The pacesetter in team target share at his position, the reinvigorated rusher is top seven among RBs in routes run (166), route% (79.4) and yards per reception (9.9). He’s a strong candidate to again top 50 receiving yards for the sixth-straight game. Due to the presence of hole plunger extraordinaire Vita Vea, opposing plowshares have cleaned up in the short field. This season, the Bucs have allowed the third-most RB receiving yards at 51.4 per game. Score prop gold in the glory hole.
BetAlytics Projection: 53.25
3. Xavier Worthy OVER 5.5 rush yards at Lions (-105, ESPN Bet) - Like fantasy players, many bettors are creatures of habit. Every week some markets suck line shoppers into a black hole — emphasis on black. Often oddsmakers make only slight adjustments, shortcomings that continually yield advantageous numbers on which backers steadily profit. Take Worthy rush yards. Featured repeatedly in this space, his ground offering is up a few ticks from last week, but it’s seemingly still a fantastic value. Either on direct handoffs, reverses, jet sweeps or backward passes, the X-Man typically records a successful rushing attempt or three. Five-star sideline general Andy Reid is sure to cook up a “rushing” play or three for No. 1. Olimadae Zaccheus is the only WR to register a ground attempt against the Lions this season. It went for nine yards. Detroit’s No. 5 standing in rush EPA D also acts as a deterrent. However until the well runs dry, this gullible gambler will continue to chase the prop above.
BetAlytics Projection: NA
4. Garrett Wilson UNDER 58.5 receiving yards vs. Broncos (-114, DraftKings) - Similar to your shoe stepping in a giant wad of freshly chewed gum, all-world Denver corner Patrick Surtain sticks to assignments. Wilson will soon realize how uncomfortable that feeling is. He may shoulder voluminous workloads and own the shiftiness to shake most defenders, but his matchup this week is a mountain to climb. Surtain has allowed a 65.2% catch rate, but he's also given up only an 85.6 passer rating and 10.1 yards per catch to adversaries. Overall, the Broncos rank No. 4 in dropback EPA defense, yielding the 12th-fewest WR yards. They're not unbeatable, but CB Riley Moss is the clear weakest link. Opposing WR1s have predominantly received shadow treatment from Surtain. As witnessed by suboptimal efforts from Calvin Ridley (4-27), Ja'Marr Chase (5-23). Michael Pittman (4-40), Ladd McConkey (4-41) and AJ Brown (5-23), the decorated DB simply drapes. Wilson will likely haul in 4-5 receptions, but the snack-sized gains should tuck him just under 58.5. Fade.
BetAlytics Projection: 53.42
5. Caleb Williams OVER 1.5 pass TDs at Commanders (+110, BetMGM) - On Wednesday's episode of BetMGM Tonight, this loudmouth and Ryan Horvat welcomed Pro Football Hall of Famer and owner of the tightest spiral in NFL history, Warren Moon. When asked about the Chicago passer's development, the living legend immediately gravitated toward how quickly he's gotten the ball out of his hand compared to last season. Like many of his open-field rips during his esteemed career, the HOFer's analysis was on the money. Yes, Williams is still an underwhelming No. 32 in adjusted completion percentage, but No. 17 in deep-ball and No. 15 in red-zone completion rates, he has made visual strides. Two times in four games he's tossed at least a pair of touchdowns. This week, look for him to increase that number. The Commanders rank a bland No. 17 in dropback EPA D, conceding 8.15 pass yards per attempt and 254.4 pass yards game. In total, a trio of signal callers connected on at least two vertical strikes against them. Plus money? Bear all the way down.
BetAlytics Projection: 1.45
Season record: 9-9, +0.45 units