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Snapping a Polaroid pick on each major fantasy football position, The Gaming Juice’s painfully average predictor, Brad Evans, dishes his picks on which players he believes will flourish, fail and make wallets fat. Fade or follow -- that’s up to YOU.
Today’s tackle: Quarterbacks.
BOOM (Player who will greatly exceed his ADP)
Jaxson Dart, Giants (ADP: 259.78, QB30) - Admittedly, Caleb Williams, JJ McCarthy, Trevor Lawrence and Bryce Young were all considered here, but flexing HUEVOS, this bandwagoner is all aboard Dart starting sooner rather than later.
Rocking thick neck ice and an accurate bazooka, Dart has Giants fans brimming with optimism. Granted it was largely against roster backups, but his pass defense dissection witnessed in the Preseason grabbed deep leaguers' attention. The stats posted in three games were downright seducing -- 32-47, 372 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 113.1 QB rating.
Much of what he displayed this month should be taken with a giant grain of salt. He’s still an unpolished product who picked apart second and third-string defenses. Still, beliefs he hangs in Russell Wilson’s shadow the entire year aren’t buyable.
New York’s early season slate is akin to traveling on a pothole-filled road with zero visibility. ESPN’s Mike Clay gives the G-Men a 47% or greater win probability in only one of their first eight games -- Week 5 at New Orleans. It’s conceivable Brian Daboll’s team enters its Week 9 Meadowlands matchup versus the Niners standing at a basement-dwelling 1-7.
If that’s the case, expect the coaching staff to give into the fanbase's “Start Dart!” demands.
Once inserted into the lineup, expect the rookie to occasionally churn out QB1 lines. HIs mostly accurate all-fields arm coupled with a penchant for unscripted runs is a ripe recipe for numerical success. So is Malik Nabers. Deep-ball connections between the two could soon explode onlooker heads. Keep in mind, Dart ranked second nationally last year in big-time throw rate according to PFF. And, no, he didn't play his college ball at Bethune-Cookman.
He’s a challenging-format only stash, but the rookie should age like a top-shelf anejo. SuperFlexers can’t wait for the smooth-tasting results.
BUST (Player who is unlikely to profit at his ADP)
Jared Goff, Lions (ADP: 112.31, QB10) - This selection isn't an indictment on Detroit's potential. Nor is it demeaning Goff's high-floor fantasy worth. It's all a matter of preference.
In this golden age of scoring dualists, Dan Campbell's pocket anchor is a rather bland one-trick contributor. Even if Michael Meyers were chasing him in the woods, he would sprint away at a sloth-like pace. He's a classic pocket passer -- though an accomplished one -- who requires extraordinary vertical numbers to justify his QB10 price.
Yes, Goff has finished inside the QB top seven in consecutive seasons. Also, his surrounding continuity -- Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs make up a spectacular arsenal -- shouldn't be discounted. Last season, he was QB6 or higher in adjusted completion percentage, deep-ball completion percentage and red-zone completion percentage. Again, rock solid.
So why the apprehension?
Because of his lack of running consistent multi-TD games are required. That combined with Campbell's influx of new assistants along with improvements to rival rosters in the NFC North arrow to a possible regression. His projected fourth-hardest fantasy QB strength of schedule only further sells the belief.
Kyler Murray, Caleb Williams, JJ McCarthy and Brock Purdy -- QBs going some 10-30 picks after him on average -- are sounder investments.
And, yes, these ears are ready for the Eminem diss track.
BANK (Top player prop pick)
Joe Burrow to throw for 40+ touchdowns (+260, BetMGM) - Slinging pills like a pharmaceutical salesperson who peddles ED treatments, Burrow is on the verge of posting tent-pitching production.
The situation is ripe for success.
Cincinnati trots out one of the best vertical arsenals in the game. Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Andrei Iosivas and Mike Gisecki are deadly in the open field. Starting RB Chase Brown is also effective in the pass game. Their production combined with the Bengals' widely forecasted bottom-five defense -- Trey Hendrickson's signing helps but doesn't plug all visible holes -- should push the modern day Joe Cool to sling another 600+ passes.
Burrow was laser sharp a season ago. He ranked No. 3 among qualifying QBs in adjusted completion percentage. His No. 13 finish in red-zone completion percentage suggests there's room for improvement, but even if he produces average results again inside the 20, he's likely to still reach what's needed.
Yes, Preseason takeaways are far from concrete, but his 136.3 QB rating notched in three games showed he's in midseason form.
Presumably already down 14-0 in every contest except the pair of Browns matchups (Apologies, Cleveland.), Burrow's ear-blasting volume is sure to rock the fantasy world.