The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise -- fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Pittsburgh Steelers
Fantasy value - Kaleb Johnson, RB (ADP: 74.44, RB24) - In recent years under Kirk Ferentz, Iowa football is best known for staunch defenses, coffin-kick Australian punters and dog-(expletive) quarterbacks.
As a result, one would think the Hawkeyes have produced their fair share of impactful NFL RBs given their conservative nature. That, however, is not remotely the case. Their last notable RB pro was the Jets’ Shonn Greene. And he flamed out rather quickly in the 2010s.
However, off a stellar 2024 campaign in Iowa City, Johnson has the potential to set the fake football world ablaze. Equipped with textbook size (6-foot, 225 pounds), big-play burst, laser vision, primo evasiveness and terrific after-contact churn, he possesses the tools to log immediate success.
Last season according to Pro Football Focus, he finished top 10 among all FBS backs in yards after contact per attempt (4.42), total missed tackles forced (66) and breakaway runs (28). Scouts have questioned his pass-catching chops, but he should work in concert beautifully alongside tender-handed Jaylen Warren, potentially securing at least 11-13 touches per game. Recall last year under offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, the Steelers finished No. 5 in run rate, handing the ball off over 48% of snaps.
Mike Tomlin’s offensive line is a concern -- most project it to finish bottom 10 in run-blocking this year -- but Johnson is capable of exploiting the tightest cracks. In the end, 1200-1300 combined yards and 7-9 TDs is the expectation. Reach those numbers and he’ll profit considerably at the ADP above.
Already reportedly ripping off long gains in Latrobe, the upstart demands to be highlighted on your cheat sheet.
Prop pick - Aaron Rodgers OVER 3,250 pass yards (+100, BetMGM) - Sorry Ponce de Leon, the ayahuasca connoisseur won’t do backstrokes in the Fountain of Youth. At 41 years old, Rodgers will only add to Father Time’s undefeated record.
The change of scenery is an upgrade over his disastrous stint with the Jets. Tomlin is the longest tenured head coach in the league for a reason. His direction combined with Smith’s offensive game plan and the Steelers’ suitable weaponry will boost the future Hall of Famer’s production on occasion. However, in what should be a somewhat pedestrian scheme, he won’t suddenly and remarkably turn back the clock.
Still, the number above is SOFT. A one-armed Kenny Pickett could probably reach the desired goal with DK Metcalf, Calvin Austin, Jonnu Smith, Pat Freiermuth, Johnson and Warren as primary targets. Pittsburgh’s sixth-easiest projected fantasy QB strength of schedule only further sells the argument.
Last season with the Puddle Jumpers, Rodgers proved he can still spin tight spirals downfield. Among qualifying passers, he ranked No. 10 in deep-ball competition percentage. As tracked at PlayerProfiler, his No. 3 standing on money throws provides additional proof.
Yes, his overall talents have diminished and given his advanced age suitable pass protection is a must. But if he can remain upright for even 15 games, he should tally at least 3,300 pass yards.
Chug a gallon of Ensure, Rodgers.
Team lean - Steelers UNDER 8.5 regular season wins (+100, BetMGM) - Zigging from the positivity zagging above, Pittsburgh's current wins total is a bit aggressive. After all, Rodgers once roamed with triceratops in the Cretaceous, the offensive line is highly suspect and there are question marks at wide receiver beyond Metcalf. Most dubious, Pittsburgh has the eighth-hardest projected schedule in the league.
ESPN's Mike Clay forecasts 8.7 victories in the Steel City this season, computing a 53% or greater win probability in nine games. How it performs in coin-flip matchup against the Patriots (Week 3), Vikings (Week 4), Packers (Week 8), Chargers (Week 10) and Bengals (Week 11) will ultimately determine the line above.
A likely top-five defense implies the OVER is a safe bet, but given Rodgers' partially petrified state going opposite at plus money is the recommended move.