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The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Minnesota Vikings.
Fantasy value — J.J. McCarthy, QB (ADP: 125.79, QB20)
Thrifty shoppers looking for a steal of a deal should pluck the boxed McCarthy action figure off the shelf.
The quarterback is unproven on the field, but his year off due to a compromised knee shouldn’t be overemphasized. His season on the sidelines observing and absorbing Kevin O’Connell’s scheme boosts the outlook. Of course, the 2024 10th overall pick will have to display competency in actual games, but system familiarity is certainly worth something.
During Michigan's national title run two years ago, McCarthy finished in the top five among all FBS passers in adjusted completion percentage. That season under Jim Harbaugh, the young passer was somewhat kept under wraps. The Wolverines were one of the most ground-heavy teams, ranking No. 17 nationally in run rate (59.57%). Still, when unleashed, McCarthy’s accuracy and versatility were clearly shown.
This fearless forecaster was slow to buy into McCarthy’s upside. However, with both butt cheeks now firmly aboard the bandwagon, he’s an undervalued slinger who could flirt with QB1 numbers in 12-team leagues. He has arguably the best weapon in the NFC in wideout Justin Jefferson, for the love of the football gods. Also, Jordan Addison, Jalen Nailor, T.J. Hockenson and Aaron Jones aren’t exactly stiffs.
The Vikings don’t have an overly intimidating QB fantasy strength of schedule (QB18), so that’s another encouraging sign of McCarthy’s very real breakout potential. Skol! Skol! Skol!
Prop pick — Justin Jefferson OVER 1,200.5 receiving yards (-115, Caesars)
This line may seem elevated, but it’s actually softer than a Dairy Queen twist cone.
The shiny bling around Jefferson’s neck is well earned. His talents are undeniably elite, whether stretching the field on go routes, achieving critical first downs on quick slants or chewing up real estate after the catch.
[ NFL Gamer's Guide: Fantasy forecasts and futures bets for 2025 season ]
Minnesota’s WR1 cruised to 1,533 receiving yards last year with 20th-year breakout Sam Darnold at the helm. Jefferson also finished inside the WR top 15 in air yards (1453, WR12), yards after catch (482, WR6), yards per target (10.0, WR10), yards per route run (2.57, WR6) and total route wins (207, WR15).
J.J. to JJ could indeed be DYN-O-MITE! The Vikings own the 11th-easiest fantasy WR strength of schedule, and you know Jefferson’s target share will again be massive (29.9% in 2024). If he stays upright in 15 or more games, he’ll yield a sweat-free cash.
Team lean — Vikings UNDER 9.5 regular-season wins (-125, BetMGM)
The NFC North will arguably be the most competitive division this season. Detroit may take a slight step back, but the on-paper improved Bears and Packers should move forward. It’s no surprise Minnesota owns the NFL’s third-hardest strength of schedule.
ESPN’s Mike Clay predicts 8.7 wins for the Purple People, giving them a 55% chance to earn a victory in a mere six games.
With a healthy offense and a likely top-10 defense, fruitful feelings are understandable. However, the brutal slate implies eight or nine wins is likely the best bet.