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The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Fantasy value — Jalen McMillan, WR (ADP: 132.4, WR59)
Last year’s fantasy playoff hero still sports a rippling cape. From Weeks 14 to 18, only certifiable studs Ja’Marr Chase, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson and Brian Thomas Jr. outscored McMillan in 0.5 PPR formats. And over the five-game span, Tampa’s tasty McNugget (coated in sweet and sour sauce please!) totaled 24 receptions for 316 yards and seven touchdowns. Virtual gamers who elevated him off the bench surely celebrated with a top-shelf beverage or three.
Todd Bowles’ wide receiver room is crowded, last season’s offensive mastermind Liam Coen is calling the shots in Jacksonville, and McMillan’s overall advanced analytics profile leaves much to be desired. However, it’s hard to overlook the former Washington Husky’s late-season surge. Splitting time in the slot (21.7% snaps in 2024) and outside, he earned Baker Mayfield’s trust whether on downfield sprints or end-zone strikes.
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To maximize his potential, McMillan will likely need an unexpected door to again swing open. Last year, Chris Godwin’s dislocated ankle provided the opportunity.
Maybe it’s another major injury, Father Time catching up to Mike Evans or rookie Emeka Egbuka developing slowly. If pressed into a bigger role, the sophomore receiver will likely pick up where he left off.
Given the heavily discounted price, McMillan is a bench target with boom potential. Keep in mind, no NFL team has an easier strength of schedule for fantasy WRs than the Bucs. Stash.
Prop pick — Bucky Irving OVER 6.5 rushing touchdowns (-125, Caesars)
What in the Buc are the sportsbooks thinking? The above line is softer than this aging dad bod.
Irving shouldn’t endure a second-year slump after a rocking rookie season. As revealed recently, he’s extremely motivated to prove his 2024 success wasn’t a fluke. If you believe he’s about to fall off a cliff, you probably also buy Bonnie Blue is the definition of "wholesome."
Resembling The Thing from The Fantastic Four, Irving pulverized would-be tacklers on punishing downhill runs. Among qualifying running backs on Pro Football Focus, he ranked No. 1 in yards after contact per attempt, averaging a godlike 4.03. Unsurprisingly, he also tucked inside the position’s top 10 in missed tackles forced (57) and yards created per touch (4.94). Overall, he finished RB14 in half-point PPR total points.
Assuming his 49.6% opportunity share balloons, Bucky the Bulldozer could flirt with, if not exceed, 10 or more rushing TDs. Tampa Bay features a top-half run-blocking line, a proven offense (Irving encountered a stacked front on only 14.4% of snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats) and the sixth-easiest projected fantasy RB strength of schedule.
Expect Rachaad White to supplant him only sporadically. On roughly 15-18 touches per game, Irving is sure to bring the noise.
Make us bank, Bucky.
Team lean — Buccaneers OVER 9.5 regular-season wins (-120, Caesars)
YARRRR! The Bucs should again earn their rum as the best team in the NFC South.
Their somewhat flimsy defense — it ranked No. 17 in EPA per play D last season — is a question mark. However, with one of the most explosive offenses in the NFC and the seventh-easiest projected overall strength of schedule, Bowles’ bunch wield a sharpened sword.
ESPN’s Mike Clay forecasts 10.3 wins for Tampa Bay, giving it a greater than 45% win probability in exactly 10 games. Believing Baker Baker will again be a touchdown maker, the Buccaneers fend off rising Atlanta and don the division crown.