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Season-long player props are beginning to surface across sportsbooks. In an attempt to seek out values, Brad Evans will occasionally make the case on an attractive future — whether betting the OVER or UNDER — as the outside temps rise.
Today’s topic: Slinging the SKOL!
The pick — J.J. McCarthy OVER 3,600.5 passing yards (-115, Caesars)
Put the indica gummy back in the bag, brew a pot of coffee and wake the (expletive) up.
Evans, accept your ultimate fantasy rankings blunder. Move McCarthy into the QB top 20, you acting CEO of #TeamRaisins.
With the self-talk exercise over, it’s high time to stiff-arm the unknowns and promote Minnesota's main man in this season’s passer pecking order.
Hey, persuasions are powerful. Cup your ear and listen to the building McCathy buzz throughout Fantasyland. As the summer heats up, the positive noise around him will only grow louder.
Weeks ago, this McCarthy doubter preached caution. With his major knee injury and zero in-game NFL experience, trepidation was warranted. His performance at the collegiate level in a largely conservative Michigan system only bellowed the belief. During the Wolverines’ title run in 2023, he averaged a mere 9.4 yards in depth of target, good for just No. 83 nationally.
However, recently surfaced counterarguments have the “rookie” reversing course in this birdbrain’s head.
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Out of the gate, when Vikings training camp gets underway in late July, McCarthy will enter as the unquestioned starter. The organization’s head honcho, Kevin O’Connell, has yet to declare who’ll be under center Week 1 in Chicago, but when journeyman softies Sam Howell and Brett Rypien are the competition, such a depth-chart designation is a foregone conclusion.
Glowing reports in recent weeks about McCarthy’s lively arm solidify the certainty in his breakout potential. Determined to incorporate more arm-slot variance in his release, he’ll exhibit success with different trajectories.
Even more convincing is Justin Jefferson’s heaping praise. When asked about McCarthy’s velocity, the All-Pro receiver remarked, “He can definitely zip it where he needs to. That’s for sure.” Suffice it to say, J.J. to JJ could be DYN-O-MITE this season.
While operating in a run-first offense in his final season at Michigan, McCarthy finished top-five nationally in adjusted completion percentage (80.0%), according to Pro Football Focus. He may be green, but he has the howitzer and accuracy to spin on-point spirals, whether on outside-the-numbers go routes or quick slants across the middle.
With Sam Darnold at the controls last year, Minnesota finished a modest No. 15 in NFL pass rate (57.4%). Under offensive coordinator Wes Phillips, the scheme is balanced. Still, on roughly 30 pass attempts per game, McCarthy should be fantasy effective, especially considering the arsenal around him (Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, Aaron Jones).
McCarthy’s neutral fantasy strength of schedule (QB17) may not pique interest. However, when weighing his rushing appeal (250-plus yards?), general advancements and the fact he’ll twirl passes to Jefferson, it’s understandable why sportsbooks almost universally have his passing TDs line at a hefty 25.5. On a related note, the prop scribbled above is too low. Frankly, it’s more of a floor than a ceiling.
The ascending passer’s QB21 (124.2 overall) ADP in Yahoo leagues is simply too alluring. Come January, the profit margin will likely be significant.
Fashionably late to the party, this former doubter has cheeks firmly planted on the bandwagon.
Make us moolah, McCarthy.