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Season-long player props are beginning to surface across sportsbooks. In an attempt to seek out values, Brad Evans will occasionally make the case on an attractive future — whether betting the OVER or UNDER — as the outside temps rise.
Today’s topic: San Francisco’s comeback kid.
The pick — Christian McCaffrey to win Comeback Player of the Year (+370, FanDuel)
Misled. Duped. Hoodwinked.
Last August during peak fantasy draft season, managers were clueless about McCaffrey’s underreported health status. Bogged down by an unknown setback, the 49ers star only stoked buyer bewilderment.
The fantasy community was completely stunned.
Almost unanimously selected at No. 1 overall in virtual game exercises, the cherished running back was sure to be a reliable backbone of team roster construction. Still in his physical prime after a remarkable 2023 as a centerpiece in San Francisco’s healthy offensive environment, McCaffrey was destined for another storybook season.
Then the truth came out. He had bilateral Achilles tendonitis.
[ NFL Gamer's Guide: Fantasy forecasts and futures bets for 2025 season ]
The devastating medical condition sapped CMC’s studliness and rendered him useless. Seeing action in only four games, he finished a disastrous RB72 in total fantasy points scored, nestled between box score behemoths Isaiah Davis and Tyler Goodson. Twenty bucks if you can even name the teams those rushing “heavyweights” played for. Phones down.
Entering the 2025 season, disappointment's bitter taste remains on drafter tongues. So far, the Niners’ golden boy has slipped well into Round 2 of 12-team drafts (17.67 ADP). Like a lover scorned, many gamers are saying, “Never again.”
The immediate dismissal is completely understandable. However, grudges have no place in fantasy football.
“Zero safety days” may adorn the sign outside the Football Factory, but as Warren Zevon epically sang in the rock classic "Lawyers, Guns and Money,” fanatics should take “a little risk." Sure, a forklift could fall on your leg, but given McCaffrey’s discounted price, the gamble is completely worth it.
Initial reports about the Bay Area’s multidimensional machine have been nothing but positive. Most glowingly, he has participated in team activities with no restrictions.
Commenting on his appearance in OTAs, some quick-triggers have already questioned CMC’s burst and cutting ability, but, as head coach Kyle Shanahan conveyed to the media in late May, the RB is “healthy as he can be.”
Regardless if you believe he has lost a step, the 29-years-young plowshare is a strong comeback candidate. Yes, Isaac Guerendo will play a noteworthy role spelling him with roughly 9-11 touches per game, and, in turn, McCaffrey may be dialed back somewhat. However, 17-20 touches per game are foreseeable for CMC. Honestly, a less-is-more approach would be welcomed.
Assuming he remains upright, a top-five fantasy finish in 0.5 PPR is likely. His Swiss Army usage and prominent red-zone role are encouraging. In total, approximately 1,400-1,500 total yards with double digit scores are a solid floor if he plays at least 14 games. Keep in mind: San Francisco boasts a top-10 run-blocking line and the eighth-easiest projected fantasy strength of schedule.
Bury the angst, haters.
Whether in fantasy or betting, strike it rich with the Gold Panner.