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Season-long player props are beginning to surface across sportsbooks. In an attempt to seek out values, Brad Evans will occasionally make the case on an attractive future — whether betting the OVER or UNDER — as the outside temps rise.
Today’s topic: Pro football’s “enigma.”
The pick — Aaron Rodgers OVER 23.5 passing touchdowns (-115, DraftKings)
Celebrate with a generous ayahuasca pour, Steeler Nation. Your hallucinogenic journey at quarterback is about to begin.
First reported by NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero on Thursday, Aaron Rodgers will sign with the Steelers before the team’s minicamp next week.
Yep, no one saw this coming.
[ NFL Gamer's Guide: Fantasy forecasts and futures bets for 2025 season ]
Sure, the carpet ride could be magical, but the mind-expanding trip could also prove disastrous. After all, despite his still lively arm, Rodgers is 41 years old, remains enormously diva-ish and ranked an uncharacteristic QB28 in adjusted competition percentage last season with the Jets. However, he did throw for 28 touchdowns while displaying a fantastic deep-ball touch (QB10 in deep ball completion percentage) and shiftiness in the pocket.
Speaking of his former employer, the now Justin Fields-led Puddle Jumpers play host to Pittsburgh in Week 1. Hollywood couldn’t have scripted a more compelling opening act. Slow clap, NFL.
For fantasy audiences, view the future Canton enshrinee as a useful QB2 in 12-team SuperFlex drafts. Far from the QB1 mainstay of yesteryear, Rodgers will provide substantial weekly value only when the matchup warrants. His new offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, is a documented conservative play caller — the Steelers ranked No. 28 in pass rate in 2024 — and his weaponry outside of DK Metcalf doesn’t elicit much excitement.
If tight end Jonnu Smith is pried away from Miami, though, that perception could somewhat change. Keep in mind, Pittsburgh has the sixth-easiest projected fantasy strength of schedule.
Bottom line: Expect Rodgers to be a borderline top-20 passer in fantasy. Final numbers in the range of 3,700 passing yards with 24-26 passing TDs are a fair expectation. If achieved, he will land in the Matthew Stafford-Tua Tagovailoa-Geno Smith range of fantasy QBs.
The most expected ink-to-paper deal this offseason is done. And the game’s ultimate drama king is back.