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Season-long player props are beginning to surface across sportsbooks. In an attempt to seek out values, Brad Evans will occasionally make the case on an attractive future — whether betting the OVER or UNDER — as the outside temps rise.
Today’s topic: Chicago’s QB hope.
The pick — Caleb Williams OVER 22.5 passing touchdowns (-110, BetMGM)
In casual conversations with football-crazed friends over drinks, a random anecdote — when dropped for the first time — instantly triggers shock and amazement.
In the 105-year history of the Chicago Bears, not one passer has thrown for 30 or more touchdowns in a single season. Erik Kramer owns the club record with 29 end-zone strikes in 1995. Heck, even the NFL’s youngest franchise, the Houston Texans, have accomplished the feat. Five years ago, then-franchise cornerstone Deshaun Watson chucked 33 TDs.
After the astonishment and “Really?” reactions wear off, the constantly miserable Bears fan in attendance promptly orders a whiskey double. The “fun fact” pain hits … hard.
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However, the winds of change have appropriately arrived in a city known for such events. This season, Williams has a chance to rewrite the organization's record books.
Yes, seriously.
Going from Matt Eberflus to Ben Johnson at head coach is equivalent to trading your home in "beautiful" nowhere Mississippi for a seaside mansion in Malibu. Johnson is a schematic genius who is already installing implementations to quickly correct some of Williams’ undesirable tendencies — especially holding the ball exceedingly long and running into pressure — which he displayed as a rookie.
Naysayers' knee-jerk reactions have already written off the former USC standout after one season. Grabbing arrows from their quiver, they target his rankings outside the top 22 in every completion percentage measurement imaginable. Most ghastly, Wiliams finished QB33 in catchable target rate.
No, the 2024 No. 1 overall pick is not completely absolved of wrongdoing. Many misfires were his fault. Still, he doesn’t deserve full responsibility. The Bears’ offensive line was largely marginal in myriad blocking efficiency categories. That’s why Williams finished No. 4 in total hurries (52) in ‘24. No bueno.
Halas Hall’s commitment to enhancing the offensive line and adding weaponry this offseason has the QB’s needle pointing north. Crafty veteran DJ Moore, breakout candidate Rome Odunze, potential YAC beast Luther Burden and tight ends Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet comprise a quality arsenal.
With a middle-of-the-pack projected fantasy strength of schedule (QB18), a year of experience and an offseason filled with IG model rendezvous, the second-year slinger is a strong next-step candidate. Add in his rushing upside, and fantasy fans should willingly call his name after pick No. 100 overall (ADP: 112.78, QB12). Gamblers should confidently invest, too.
Chicago’s quarterback curse is about to be broken. In his sophomore season, Williams is on the verge of being a sensation.