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Season-long player props are beginning to surface across sportsbooks. In an attempt to seek out values, Brad Evans will occasionally make the case on an attractive future — whether betting the OVER or UNDER — as the outside temps rise.
Today’s topic: Bankin' on Burrow.
The pick — Joe Burrow to lead NFL in passing yards (+600, Caesars)
In nature, Bengals — the actual large cat version found in south Asia — typically hunt victims from behind, violently pulling them to the ground before clamping their jaws around the victim’s neck.
Last season, the NFL’s tigris species employed a similar method when on the prowl.
Thanks to a toothless defense, Cincinnati was routinely forced to scratch and claw out of deficits. Sometimes the scoreboard chases rendered a bountiful feast. In other instances, the fruitless efforts only deepened the famine.
[ NFL Gamer's Guide: Fantasy forecasts and futures bets for 2025 season ]
In the end, Zac Taylor’s team — despite ripping off five straight wins to cap the regular season — finished a disappointing 9-8 and missed the AFC playoffs by one measly victory.
Coming off the best season of his career, #Bengals QB Joe Burrow is still focused on getting better. pic.twitter.com/71buFcTOAI
— Chatterbox Sports (@CBoxSports) May 20, 2025
Though the Bengals fell short of the postseason, Burrow’s final numbers were nothing shy of fantasy catnip. The modern-day Joe Cool completed 70.6% of his passes, totaling NFL bests of 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns. Also, his 22.5 fantasy points per game finished No. 3 among all signal callers.
Burrow was just as impressive under the hood. In his 17 starts, he was tops in total air yards, expected fantasy points per game and QBR. According to PlayerProfiler, the gunslinger also slid inside the top six in overall red zone accuracy and deep ball catchable pass rate, tearing up both man and zone schemes.
In his 2025 follow-up, expect a near replication.
The sharp dressed passer is in the prime of his playing career and is surrounded by a bevy of stellar weapons. Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Andrei Iosivas, Mike Gesicki and Chase Brown always pack a machete. Secondary slicings and dicings are sure to occur regularly.
Cincinnati’s gashable defense — especially with All-Pro DE Trey Hendrickson potentially holding out — is likely to again be overly forgiving. Last year, it finished No. 27 in overall EPA per play D. Suffice it to say, furious comebacks will be required.
In his first five seasons, Burrow eclipsed 4,500 passing yards three times. Given his unsupportive defense, stellar surrounding cast, pinpoint accuracy and only moderately tough schedule (16th-easiest among fantasy QBs), he’s in line to obliterate the box score on another 600-plus pass attempts. Come year's end, it would be no surprise if he surpassed 5,000 vertical yards.
At +600 to set the NFL pace in passing yards, Burrow is undoubtedly a jungle cat who bettors should fancy.