Florida vs. Houston: National championship best bets

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The NCAA Tournament is the single greatest betting event perennially. With the thrills, chills and heavy favorite spills, the Madness always delivers. What title game pick has the attention of The Gaming Juice’s Brad Evans?

No. 1 Florida (35-4) vs. No. 1 Houston (35-4)
Date: Monday, April 7
Time: 8:50 p.m. ET
TV: CBS

The pick — Florida -1.5 vs. Houston (-105, BetMGM)

And in an instant, the chalk vanished right before our eyes.

In the Year of the Favorite, Duke, the clear-cut front-runner to win the whole enchilada entering Saturday’s Final Four action, barfed all over the finely upholstered living room couch. Houston’s 11-1 run over the final 74 seconds to achieve a miraculous 70-67 victory — a contest largely controlled by the Blue Devils for 38 minutes — erased Duke’s title chances in an unfathomable blink.

On X, the “White Lotus” memes immediately surfaced.

With the national championship game between Houston and Florida set, a bloody battle is sure to ensue in San Antonio on Monday night.

Davy Crockett approves.

The Cougars are the definition of “bully ball.” Often undersized and seemingly outmatched, they almost always find a way to stay within sniffing distance. As Kelvin Sampson told The Field of 68’s John Fanta after Saturday’s comeback win, the master tactician is constantly “probing” and “looking to find a matchup” to flip a game in his favor.

H-Town’s defense is what keeps it within reach. Since March 1, Sampson’s squad has surrendered only 0.896 points per possession, giving up 46.8% shooting on 2-pointers and 27.5% on 3s. The Cougars also forced a turnover on 18.1% of opponent possessions. Whether contesting shots along the perimeter or at the rim, the zombie hoard is simply insatiable.

On the offensive end, Houston is in the unpretty business. Over its last 11 games, it ranks No. 196 in effective field goal percentage offense and No. 329 in adjusted tempo.

Emanuel Sharp and L.J. Cryer are deadeyes from three, but Hakeem Olajuwon U is highly reliant on generating second and third chances to score points. Keeping the Cougars off the glass is imperative.

As for Florida, it excels in almost every facet. Todd Golden’s group has mammoth frontcourt size, a bevy of arc assassins and undeniably the most electric offensive weapon in Walter Clayton Jr.

Over the last month, the Gators are a subpar No. 77 in effective field goal percentage defense, but standing at No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency during the same span, they have overcome guarding flaws with buckets — lots and lots of buckets.

During that time, Florida has shot 58.1% from two and 37.9% from three. And its paint muscle — mainly Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu and Thomas Haugh — has collected an offensive rebound on a ridiculous 41.8% of possessions. The Gators can match the pesky opponent board for board.

Houston improbably knocked off a Duke team packed with disruptive length and supreme athleticism. Faced with an equally daunting task against UF, Sampson must push the right buttons to again succeed.

Tears of joy could stream down Jim Nantz’s face, but Florida — the best closing team in the country — is unlikely to falter. Its interior efforts and Clayton's vibrancy are hard to bet against.

This gambler, who’s holding a 13-1 national title ticket from early February, hopes the Gators will chomp in what should be a championship classic.

Just don’t pull a Duke.

Season record: 34-36, -2.16 units

BONUS TIME — Walter Clayton Jr. to win Most Outstanding Player (+100, BetMGM)

DOUBLE BONUS TIME — SGP: Houston +6.5, Florida +6.5 (+125, Caesars)