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The NCAA Tournament is the single greatest betting event perennially. With the thrills, chills and heavy favorite spills, the Madness always delivers. What Sweet 16 pick has the attention of The Gaming Juice’s Brad Evans?
No. 5 Michigan (27-9) vs. No. 1 Auburn (30-5)
Date: Friday, March 28
Time: 9:39 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
The pick — Michigan +9.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Put some damn respect on the Big Ten.
With four teams still ticking in the Sweet 16, the league admonishments are undeserved. Yes, your “baby,” who now drinks legally and lives on his own, was born in the same year (2000) a conference representative cut down the nets (Michigan State), but the widely panned group has largely performed well in this year’s NCAA Tournament.
See the Wolverines.
Dusty May has conquered previous demons impacting the program practically overnight. The savvy architect quickly flipped the script.
A year ago, Michigan finished a miserable 8-24. Now, it’s one win away from reaching the Elite Eight for only the fourth time since 1994.
Ann Arbor’s finest may only rank No. 35 overall on BartTorvik over past 30 days, but a deeper dive reveals great strengths. Admittedly, making 3-pointers (26.7 3PT%) isn’t one of them. However, 7-footers Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin are big reasons why the Wolverines have netted an appreciable 52.9% inside the arc.
Most impressively, Michigan has routinely head-locked opponents. In its last 10 games, the Maize and Blue check in at No. 18 nationally in effective field goal percentage defense, conceding 43.8% on 2s and 29.5% on 3s. Those suffocations have singlehandedly kept them in games.
Auburn is a polar opposite image of the Wolverines. Over its past eight games, Bruce Pearl’s club has steadily excelled on offense, slotting at No. 38 in eFG% O.
Conversely, the Tigers’ once-rigid defense has turned rickety, ranking No. 154 in eFG% D. They have challenged perimeter shots effectively, but yielding 52.9% inside the arc, they’ve become noticeably vulnerable around the tin.
Self-inflicted wounds have impeded Michigan all season. Playing clean and controlled is imperative for it to compete. Still, given the Wolverines’ brilliance around the basket, they are a matchup problem for an Auburn club that’s almost entirely reliant on Johni Broome inside.
If Michigan extends its stiff challenges to the perimeter and somewhat drains at least 34% from three, it hangs — if not outright wins.
With the spread at an inflated +9.5 … Hail! Hail!
Season record: 31-26, +3.02 units
BONUS TIME — Purdue +8.5 vs. Houston (-115, BetMGM)