SIGN UP: Get the best player prop and game betting projections at BetAlytics. Use code "JUICE" for a special promo rate.
The Madness is HERE! A certifiable college hoops nut, The Gaming Juice’s Brad Evans gives his NCAA Tournament region-by-region thoughts, discussing his favorite picks to reach San Antonio and what under-the-radar squad could wear a glass slipper.
The pick — Tennessee to reach the Final Four (+370, FanDuel)
Chameleons are remarkable creatures.
The evolutionary marvel blends in with its environment. Its color-shifting camouflage denotes physiological condition or assists in prevention of predator detection.
Though its orange-clad exterior never changes, Tennessee is college basketball’s version of the Old World lizard.
Earlier this season, the Volunteers leaned on their stiff and stout defense as they relentlessly contested shots and snagged rebounds. Over the last 30 days, however, they’ve flipped the script, increasing proficiency on offense.
In that 10-game stretch, Rocky Top is No. 12 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 56 in adjusted defensive efficiency. What a sea change.
When in possession, Tennessee attacks the tin in various ways. Since mid-February, it has netted over 56% from 2-point range. It’s only No. 203 in 3-point percentage offense during that stretch, but Chaz Lanier, Igor Milicic Jr. and Jamhai Mashack are willing and capable shooters. Jordan Gainey has his arc moments, but his moneyball contributions are mostly sporadic.
The Vols’ biggest offensive strength is asserting themselves downhill. They’re one of the best near-proximity teams in the country. Gainey, Lanier and floor general Zakai Zeigler are steadily lethal on dribble drives and finishes, and interior bruiser Felix Okpara can rock the rim.
Tennessee also entices whistles. On the season, 20% of its points have come from the free-throw line, where it shoots 74.3%. Charity stripe performance is always needed in nip-and-tuck NCAA Tournament affairs.
In practices leading up to their opening-round, 2 vs. 15 matchup against Wofford, Rick Barnes' boys will need to emphasize defensive principles. Strangely, his squad is No. 127 in effective field goal percentage D over the last 30 days, a far cry from where it ranked earlier this season.
Most beatable in the post, the Volunteers have given up 52.3% shooting on 2s. Along the perimeter, though, they’ve only allowed 30.7% shooting.
Tennessee’s transformation has it on an upward trend entering March’s main event. If the Vols recapture their defensive form, they could easily emerge from what should be an upside-down Midwest Region.
Order a Jack Daniels.
CINDERELLA SPECIAL (No. 10+ seed that could advance one or more lines)
The pick — High Point to reach Round of 32 (+250)
Pundits and numbers nerds alike are willing Panthers pickers.
Alan Huss’ crew is one of the finest offensive teams among the NCAA Tournament’s double-digit class. High Point is No. 12 in effective field goal percentage offense, tallying 57.4% on 2s and 36.6% on 3s. Chase Johnston and Da’Maurian Williams shot a combined 42.0% on equalizers.
The Panthers shoot 76.3% at the free-throw line, and they also embrace an old-school game. They rank No. 2 in all of college basketball in midrange shooting percentage (47.2%).
High Point’s defense is suspect (No. 227 in adjusted D efficiency), but with 7-foot sophomore Juslin Bodo Bodo (1.4 blocks per game), the Panthers won’t be shoved around.
Matched against a Purdue team near rock bottom over the past month in 2-point percentage D (61.9%), the relatively deep Panthers have Cinderella appeal. There’s a reason why the Boilermakers’ -10.5 opening line immediately shrunk to -8.5.
Aim High.