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Sometimes you want to make a quick pit stop, empty the bladder, grab a bag of salty snacks and limber up the limbs before hitting the open road again. For the fast-minded who enjoy simple $2 scratchers hoping to uncover the jackpot-winning image, here are quick thoughts and the lean on Alabama vs. Mississippi State.
No. 4 Alabama (17-3, 6-1) at No. 14 Mississippi State (16-4, 4-3)
Date: Wednesday, January 29
Time: 9 p.m. ET
TV: SEC Network
Several weeks into the season and now almost a full month through the conference slate, betting trends are beginning to take shape.
Sometimes they’re about as trustworthy as leaving your insatiable terrier within reach of an unattended sandwich. In other instances, they inexplicably continue to hit. Houston Christian, for example, has the best against-the-spread record in the college game, covering in 16 of 19 contests this season.
In recent clashes, Alabama-Mississippi State has had its own outcome consistencies. Most notably, the Crimson Tide have kenneled the Bulldogs, winning straight-up in nine of their last 10 meetings. Also warrior-like on the road, Roll Tide has grabbed a victory in five consecutive away games this season.
Suffice it to say, Nate Oats’ veteran bunch is a projected No. 1 seed on the Bracket Big Board for myriad reasons. Unmistakably, it’s national-title good.
Mississippi State will push ‘Bama. Chris Jans’ club has rightfully earned its top-15 ranking in the popularity poll. According to BartTorvik, the Bulldogs are No. 19 in overall efficiency in January.
However, while MSU’s per-possession stats are shiny, the eFG data in its last seven contests lacks luster. Over that stretch, the Bulldogs are an underwhelming No. 210 in eFG% offense and No. 121 in eFG% defense. Most alarmingly, Josh Hubbard and friends are shooting only 28.3% on 3-pointers this month.
Outgunning Alabama from distance is often necessary. When on, Mark Sears and the Tide malfunction scoreboards.
The pick — Alabama +1.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Oats’ formula is steeped in three key components — arc attempts, offensive rebounding and speed.
As for the latter, Alabama’s foot never leaves the gas.
In January games, no squad sports a higher adjusted tempo than the Fightin’ Elephants. During that span, they’re also top-60 nationally in eFG% offense and eFG% defense, and they’ve generated a second chance on 36.4% of team possessions. It’s a primary reason why they’re netting a ridiculous 60.2% on 2s. Hail State, which is No. 244 in defensive rebounding percentage in its last seven outings, is outmatched on the glass.
This season, 47.5% of Alabama jacks have come beyond the arc. Though occasionally inaccurate on those attempts (32.5 3PT%), the Crimson Tide are capable of opening the skies and raining torrents. If Mississippi State is unable to match the drench and/or refuses to box out effectively, the visitors could sprint away.
Final buzzer: This numbers nerd believes the trend will indeed be thy friend.
Don't bomb, 'Bama.
Season record: 17-15, +1.72 units