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Sometimes you want to make a quick pit stop, empty the bladder, grab a bag of salty snacks and limber up the limbs before hitting the open road again. For the fast-minded who enjoy simple $2 scratchers hoping to uncover the jackpot-winning image, here are quick thoughts and the lean on Tennessee vs. Florida.
No. 1 Tennessee (14-0, 1-0) at No. 8 Florida (13-1, 0-1)
Date: Tuesday, January 7
Time: 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
The pick — Florida -1.5 (-110, BetMGM)
As anyone who has painted a room can attest, sometimes colors aren’t an exact match.
For example, Tennessee’s version of orange is far from the conventional mixture of yellow and red on the spectrum of visible light. Even renowned author and humorist Mark Twain, who famously joked about his color blindness, would’ve distinguished that.
For those with or without dichromatic vision, the Volunteers’ No. 1 AP ranking and advanced metrics aren’t clear equivalents. According to the popularity poll, Rick Barnes’ team has been undeniably the best in the country five weeks into the season. With true victories at Louisville and Illinois and a neutral-court smashing of Baylor in the Bahamas, Smokey has every justification to be the top dog.
However, several sophisticated algos disagree.
Well-respected computer measurements KenPom, BartTorvik, Haslametics and EvanMiya have Tennessee at No. 4 or No. 5 nationally, unanimously trailing Auburn, Duke and Houston. Anyone with functional eyes could argue the Vols at No. 1, but the computer analytics, which track and weigh numerous categories, paint a slightly different picture.
Tuesday’s grapple inside Exactech Arena could unite or further divide both sides.
Tennessee enters the game unblemished at 14-0. At No. 2 in wins above bubble, the Volunteers are No. 35 nationally in effective field-goal percentage offense and No. 2 in effective field goal percentage defense. Whether cranking the heat via stellar on-ball defense or plunging daggers on the other end, Rocky Top is inarguably a well-oiled machine.
Senior guard Chaz Lanier, who is No. 5 in KenPom’s Player of the Year ratings, is a supreme shotmaker. This season, he’s drained an absurd 46.7% of his 3-point attempts. He’s flanked by rising bucket getter Jordan Gainey and the outstanding frontcourt duo of Felix Okpara and Igor Milicic Jr. All in all, the reps from Knoxville are a nasty matchup from baseline to baseline.
Though Todd Golden’s alleged off-the-court transgressions still linger in the background, Florida has remained focused, totaling ferocious production under both baskets.
In a similar vicinity to their opponents, the Gators are No. 44 in effective field-goal percentage offense and No. 12 in effective field-goal percentage defense. Big men Alex Condon and Reuben Chineylu have successfully patrolled the paint on either end. Meanwhile, FAU transfer Alijah Martin and Walter Clayton Jr., who dropped 33 points in a 100-106 loss at Kentucky last Saturday, have routinely splashed the cylinder.
This battle boils down to two key areas: 1) tempo and 2) rebounding.
As for the first key, Tennessee and Florida greatly contrast in styles — the Vols rank No. 297 in adjusted temp, while the Gators are No. 87. Whoever dictates pace will gain an edge. As for key No. 2, both squads are tremendous on the glass, whether creating or preventing second-chance opportunities (both are top-90 in offensive rebounding rate and defensive rebounding rate). Generating an upper hand in the post is sure to be swaying.
Final buzzer: Home court should make a difference. Even though UF students are on winter break, the full-throated 10,000-plus in attendance are bound to intensify the environment for the visiting team.
Tennessee has won eight of the past 10 meetings against Florida, including last season’s 85-66 annihilation in Knoxville, but this bettor is banking on the other orange suffering defeat for the first time this season.
Don’t become luggage, Gators.
Season record: 13-10, +2.97 units
BONUS TIME — Michigan-UCLA UNDER 143.5 total points (-110, FanDuel)