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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — Justin Jefferson 100+ receiving yards (+105, DraftKings)
One night. One game. And for the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
The temperature outside Ford Field may be in the frigid single digits, but the stakes inside couldn’t run hotter. To the victor, all the playoff home-field spoils. To the loser, a likely road trip to unfriendly Tampa Bay.
With so much at stake in the Motor City, it’s only appropriate to grab a box of Little Caesars from the nearby company HQ, kick back and watch its commercial pitchman go crazy for the visiting team.
Justin Jefferson is about to earn backers all the “Pizza! Pizza!” imaginable. Or so this bettor thinks.
Whenever he’s faced the NFC North rival, Minnesota’s top target has gone absolutely crazy. Prince would agree.
In seven career contests against Detroit, the All-Pro wide receiver has averaged 7.9 receptions and 131.0 yards per game. He’s also scored four touchdowns.
In the teams’ first encounter in Week 7, Jefferson fell short of the required yardage threshold, but his final tally of seven receptions for 81 yards and one TD certainly didn’t upset fantasy enthusiasts.
Expect far more from No. 18 in his final act of the regular season.
This season, Jefferson has surged past the century yardage mark in five games. Overall, he has averaged 9.0 targets per game and ranked top-15 among all wide receivers in total air yards, yards per route run, YAC and route wins.
Whether examining his superficial or advanced profiles, Jefferson is largely an uncontainable beast. And against a battered Lions secondary — they’re No. 32 in pass EPA defense since Week 13 — he should undeniably feast. His projected primary assignment, rookie cornerback Terrion Arnold, has allowed a 62.9% catch rate, a 103.6 passer rating and the fifth-most yards of any defensive back (728).
Eight wide receivers have hit triple-digits against Detroit. Given the Lions’ decrepit defensive state, Sam Darnold’s sharp downfield accuracy and Jefferson’s all-world talents, the Vikings WR1 delivers nothing but tastiness.
Prop season record: 16-23 -8.34 units
SGP pick — Sam Darnold OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns, Jalen Nailor OVER 1.5 receptions, Amon-Ra St. Brown 50+ receiving yards (+224, DraftKings)
Sam Darnold OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns. In a contest with all the first-to-40-points feels, Sam should sling it. In the first clash against Detroit, he managed only one passing TD, but consider that performance an anomaly. Darnold ranks No. 2 in red-zone completion percentage and No. 4 in red-zone attempts, and he has chucked at least two passing TDs in six of his last seven games. With a 114.7 passer rating indoors and given the ultra-generous opponent, the Minnesota QB should bombard Lions defenders at will. Dan Campbell's weakened secondary has given up a multi-TD passer in four of its last five contests. In an affair with a sky-high projected total of 56 points, Darold deals.
Jalen Nailor OVER 1.5 receptions. Hammer home this plus-money wager. All that’s required are two lousy grabs. Nailor, an unsung Vikings producer, is coming off a season-high five receptions for 81 yards last week against Green Bay. Facing a flimsier Detroit secondary, he should spring loose and attract Darnold’s attention at least a couple times. When lined up in the crosshairs, Nailor has posted the third-highest QB rating (133.7) of any wide receiver this season. Typically a chunk gainer, he’s also averaged an impressive 14.4 yards per catch. Lining up nearly half the time outside and in the slot, Nailor is a solid bet to earn 3-4 targets on roughly 25 routes run, and he’s in an advantageous position against Arnold or slot corner Brian Branch (62.3% catch rate allowed). The cherry on top: The Lions are second only to Minnesota in receptions surrendered to WRs (237).
Amon-Ra St. Brown 50+ receiving yards. Cue the Lady Gaga in the background. Ra-ra-ah-ah-ah should crank the numbers again against the Purple People Greeters. In the teams’ Week 7 meeting, the Pro Bowl wide receiver hauled in all eight of his targets for 112 yards and a touchdown. The EPA data may paint a pretty picture — Minnesota is No. 11 in dropback EPA D since Week 13 — but other measurements suggest otherwise. No defense surrendered more receiving yards to WRs than the Vikings, and in total, 25 wideouts have reached 50 yards against them. Logging 42.9% of his snaps in the slot, St. Brown will see a sizable portion of Byron Murphy in coverage. Minnesota’s SCB has conceded a 69.3% catch rate and the sixth-most yards of any defensive back (720). Given the Detroit wideout’s shake and bake abilities — he’s No. 18 in total route wins and No. 16 in total YAC — he should cross the needed threshold for the ninth time in his last 10 games.
SGP season record: 16-27, -1.03 units