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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — SGP: Mike Evans 50+ yards, Mike Evans anytime TD (+120, DraftKings)
As with any quarrelsome family, disputes happen. The Evans clan is no different.
Though rare, my cousin and I have had our disagreements. Unflattering descriptions were scribbled. Feelings were hurt. Bitterness ensued. Still, as time always does, wounds were healed, apologies were accepted and life carried on. And, yes, his annual Christmas care package was sent.
In Week 16, no combativeness need apply. In Dallas, the Buccaneers’ Canton-bound wide receiver should represent the family in spectacular ways. It’s Little D after all, a defense consistently inept in several areas.
Giving proper credit, the Cowboys have shown some improvement at challenging passes in recent weeks. Since Week 10, they’re No. 8 in pass EPA defense. Still, that ranking is somewhat deceiving.
During that stretch, Dallas has allowed the third-most WR yards, surrendering eight 50-yard-plus performances and four touchdowns to the position. Most enticingly, Evans’ primary projected assignment, cornerback DaRon Bland, has allowed a 121.9 passer rating and a 71.4 catch percentage on 173 coverage snaps this season.
In 11 games, Evans has checked both required boxes in the same contest five times. On a sizable 7.2 targets per game, he’s averaged 2.47 yards per route run (WR10), tallied a 113.3 passer rating when targeted (WR20), netted 14.4 yards per reception (WR27) and lured 10 total red-zone targets (WR29). Also noteworthy are his 69.7-yard average and nine touchdowns in 18 career prime-time games. In other words, it’s unlikely he shrinks under the spotlight.
No doubt a fixture on the Evans family “nice” list, the Tampa Bay wideout brings this backer endless joy.
As the family crest suggests, let your inner lion roar, Mike.
Prop season record: 15-22 -8.24 units
SGP play — Brandon Aubrey OVER 1.5 field goals, Jalen McMillan 25+ receiving yards, Tampa Bay +7.5 (+140, DraftKings)
Brandon Aubrey OVER 1.5 field goals. Pure 24-karat gold. That’s what the former soccer player’s leg is forged from. Undeniably the most lethal kicker in the game, Aubrey is a threat from 20 or 65 yards, and his strong boot should blast at least two FGs through the uprights. He’s done precisely that in 12 of 14 games this season, drilling 84.2% of his attempts. Tampa’s defense has tightened in recent weeks, but all Cooper Rush and company need to do is cross the opponent’s 50. Avoid doinks and Aubrey cashes. Keep in mind: Eight kickers have registered at least a pair of field goal makes against the Bucs.
Jalen McMillan 25+ receiving yards. As deeper league fantasy managers can attest, McMillan is having a December to remember. Without question, the Buccaneers rookie wideout is blossoming. Taking advantage of soft man coverage opposite Evans, the third-round pick from Washington has totaled at least 25 yards in four of his last five games. Also, he’s top-30 overall in average depth of target (12.4) and average yards of separation per target (1.75). As discussed above with his battery mate, Dallas’ pass D hasn’t been a complete pushover this month. Still, McMillan’s primary dance partner, CB Amani Oruwariye, has given up 322 receiving yards, a 122.8 passer rating and a 74.1% catch rate on only 132 coverage snaps. Thirty-one WRs have topped 25 yards against the Cowboys this season, too. This is a no-brainer leg.
Tampa Bay +7.5. If the Bucs emerge victorious on the road, their playoff ticket is practically punched. They can increase their postseason chances to 93% with a win, according to NFL.com’s Playoff Picture. That’s considerable motivation. Tampa Bay’s top-10 rankings in EPA per play offense and defense since Week 10 support their chances at improving to 9-6. Dallas has shown some semblance of a defense over that span, but it’s a lowly No. 31 in EPA per play offense in its last five games. Tally it up, and Todd Bowles’ bunch should earn its rum. Even if the Buccaneers fall short, the cushion applied is quite thick.
SGP season record: 14-25, -1.43 units