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During the NFL season, I will constantly scour the sportsbooks to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 equals 1.15 units wagered.
1. SGP: Derrick Henry 100+ rushing yards, anytime touchdown at Giants (+110, BetMGM)
See Giants. Smash Giants. ARRRGH! The Football Frankenstein is ready to blast would-be tacklers into an alternate dimension. This season on 74.3% of Baltimore’s opportunity share, Henry has scored touchdowns in 11 of 13 games and sprinted past 100 ground yards six times. On top of that, the Ravens running back ranks top-seven in both YAC per attempt (3.53) and total missed tackles forced (51) among qualifying rushers. He should further demoralize a down-in-the-dumps New York franchise. Over the last five weeks, the Giants rank an unexciting No. 19 in rush EPA defense. Also, the Miniatures have yielded 4.81 yards per carry, 115.2 rushing yards per game and 11 TDs to RBs. Arguably the most-difficult running back to wrangle at full steam, Henry repeatedly rips through weak arm tackles en route to what’s needed.
2. Jameis Winston OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Chiefs (+120, BetMGM)
This wager may seem like a dare on par with chomping on a raw Carolina Reaper without the coating benefits of milk, but this CEO of #TeamHuevos has the GIGANTES to purchase a ticket. Winston doesn’t remotely give two (expletive) about miscues he’s bound to accumulate. Despite the interceptions, the man simply keeps firing. Yes, he’s struggled with threading needles inside the 20, as evidenced by his No. 31 standing in red-zone completion percentage. However, his consistent deep connections with Jerry Jeudy have catapulted his efficiency and overall production in recent weeks. The Browns quarterback has thrown for a pair of TDs in three of his past four games. Most encouragingly, Kansas City’s secondary has sputtered of late. Since Week 10, it’s No. 25 in pass EPA defense. Overall, the Chiefs have surrendered five multi-TD passers and an 18:6 TD:INT split to QBs. Winston, who is plagued by a glorious case of amnesia, guides backers to a delicious W.
BetAlytics grade: B-
3. Courtland Sutton OVER 68.5 receiving yards vs. Colts (-115, BetMGM)
Put some damn respect on Sutton’s name. The constantly overlooked Broncos receiver is balling and has emerged as a certifiable No. 1 wideout. Bo Nix’s accurate arm and Sutton’s route savvy are a match made in heaven. Over the last six games, the pair have combined for 7.0 receptions and 94.8 yards per contest. Under the hood, Sutton’s advanced metrics profile also glistens. Enticing 8.0 targets per game, he’s No. 2 in total air yards, No. 20 in aDOT (13.3) and No. 17 in total route wins. Simply put, the man steadily generates space and makes defenders pay in downfield chunks. At first blush, crossing paths with an Indianapolis secondary that’s No. 11 in pass EPA D since Week 10 seems unappetizing. However, his matchup with Jaylon Jones is a delightful one. The Colts cornerback has given up the seventh-most yards of any defensive back along with a 65.2% catch rate. For the seventh-straight week, Sutton slays the box score.
4. Jayden Daniels 40+ rushing yards at Saints (+105, DraftKings)
Be Blitzen. Be Donner. Heck, be Rudolph and guide this gambler’s sleigh tonight. Whichever famous reindeer he channels, Daniels is sure to deliver good little betting girls and boys a fat bag. New Orleans has exhibited problems containing mobile quarterbacks. When Drew Lock scoots for 59 yards against you, it summarizes the plight. The Aints are No. 26 in rush EPA defense since Week 10, and overall, they’ve allowed the 11th-most rushing yards to QBs. Their No. 11 slotting in total pocket pressures spells out the increased heat they typically apply. As a result, Daniels’ unscripted runs could occur frequently. In 13 games, the Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite has averaged 8.3 scrambles and 45.4 rushing yards, and he’s crossed the 40-yard mark on the ground seven times. Dash away, dash away, dash away, Daniels.
5. David Montgomery OVER 2.5 receptions vs. Bills (+130, BetMGM)
Pop in that vintage cassette single into the old-school boombox and blare the Billy Idol. #MandatoryMontgomery is primed to reward investors on the delectable prop detailed above. The Lions running back’s role as a pass catcher has yielded consistent production in recent weeks. He’s only run a route 4.9 times per game this season, but he’s grabbed at least three passes in five of his last six contests. The pass work tabbed for Sonic (aka Jahmyr Gibbs) has shifted to Knuckles (Montgomery). Most impressively, Monty has logged a 94.1% catch rate. In other words, when jogging out on a short-field route, he’s catching virtually everything Jared Goff tosses in his general direction. In what could be a Super Bowl preview against the Bills, bank on Montgomery snatching three passes for the fifth-straight week. No team has given up more RB receptions (76) than the Bills. In total, 10 running backs have recorded three or more receptions against them. Get seduced by the juice, gamer.
BetAlytics grade: B+
Season record: 35-35, +1.33 units