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No. 5 Georgia (10-2) vs. No. 2 Texas (11-1)
Date: Saturday, December 7
Time: 4 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
A conference championship and a revenge game? How did we get so lucky?
After a 30-15 whuppin’ by Georgia in October, the Longhorns are out for revenge in an SEC title showdown with College Football Playoff implications.
The pick — Texas first-half moneyline (-130, Caesars)
Taking that Week 8 Georgia-Texas game as a point of reference, the second-ranked Longhorns will be looking to plant their flag (so to speak) early in this one.
In that first meeting, the Bulldogs dominated the first half. And I mean dominated.
Georgia led 23-0 going into the locker room and forced three Texas turnovers in two quarters. The Longhorns brought in Arch Manning to try and shake things up, but nothing changed. The first-half Bulldog barrage was too big to overcome.
This time around, I don’t think fifth-ranked Georgia will be as lucky.
Since that loss, Texas has looked like a powerhouse. The Longhorns’ four turnovers in that game seem like a distant memory, and in their last three contests, they have a +0.7 turnover margin.
Offensively, Texas has gotten even stronger, holding top-10 rankings in both EPA per rush and per dropback. The Longhorns also rank top-25 in yards per play. I don’t think they will be caught flat-footed out of the gate in Saturday’s rematch at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
Moreover, starting games strong hasn’t been the Bulldogs’ strong suit of late. They have been tied or behind in three of their last four matchups, with the one outlier being a 59-21 rout of UMass two weeks ago. Georgia also ranks 79th in first-half points per game and has given up 16 points per first half over its last three contests.
Essentially, we have a Texas team seeking revenge and a Georgia squad that has a recent history of starting games slow. Let’s go with the situation and numbers here and ride with the Longhorns.
Season record: 27-17, +8.65 units