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No. 17 Clemson (9-3) vs. No. 8 SMU (11-1) in Charlotte
Date: Saturday, December 7
Time: 8 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
The most important game of Conference Championship Weekend will take place Saturday in Charlotte, where No. 17 Clemson and No. 8 SMU battle for the ACC title.
The winner will secure a spot in the College Football Playoff, but the result will also determine if Alabama makes the 12-team field.
A win by the Mustangs gives the committee the most straight-forward decision, as SMU would likely be the No. 3 seed as the third-highest conference champion and the Tigers would be out. However, if Clemson pulls out a victory, the committee will have a headache on its hands.
Would it keep SMU ahead of Alabama in the rankings? Or will it allow a three-loss SEC team trump a two-loss ACC squad with its second defeat coming in its 13th game?
After what happened last season — when SEC champion Alabama leapfrogged 13-0 ACC champion Florida State in the final rankings — the Mustangs might need to win so they don’t leave their fate in the hands of the 13 committee members.
The pick — Clemson +2.5 (-110, BetMGM)
SMU has been one of the big stories of the college football season, having gone undefeated in its first season in the ACC.
The Mustangs had a slow start to its 2024 campaign, barely getting past Nevada 29-24 as a four-touchdown favorite in Week 0 and then losing 18-15 to BYU two weeks later. Things changed after coach Rhett Lashlee benched Preston Stone and made Kevin Jennings the starting quarterback.
SMU’s run of success began with a 66-42 win over local rival TCU and continued with a sweep of a favorable conference schedule that didn’t include matchups against Miami or Clemson.
Dabo Swinney’s Tigers had a very eventful final Saturday of the season with a non-conference rivalry game against South Carolina. It didn’t impact the conference standings, but it obviously meant a lot to the program and Clemson fans.
The Tigers led for most of the second half, but QB LaNorris Sellers’ late 20-yard rushing touchdown on third-and-16 put South Carolina in front at 17-14. The Gamecocks sealed the win after Clemson’s Cade Klubnik threw a game-clinching interception.
The loss ended the Gamecocks’ chances at a playoff at-large bid, but their CFP hopes were kept alive after Syracuse overcame a 21-0 deficit to upset Miami 42-38 and send Clemson to the ACC title game.
All of this leads me to liking the Tigers in Saturday’s showdown at an underdog price. They are more talented than SMU, and I have questions about the Mustangs’ strength of schedule.
I believe the loss to South Carolina creates line value on Clemson, as it is fair to say if the Tigers won last week they would be a small favorite against SMU.
There’s also a hidden home-field advantage for Clemson that I don’t think is being properly built into the odds: The game is being played at Bank of America Stadium, which is about 2 1/2 hours from the Clemson campus.
The Mustangs took the early money in the game on Sunday morning, and I was hoping the point spread would get out to +3. It appears that +2.5 is the resistance point, so I’m OK with betting that number or taking the Tigers on the moneyline.
Season record: 18-19, -2.41 units