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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
(Evans Weather Note: A Lake Effect Snow Warning is in effect. The prolific snow band that impacted Orchard Park yesterday and overnight is expected to linger with in-game accumulations around 1-2". Winds will generally be light. Given the footing issue potential, advantage offenses.)
Prop play — Brock Purdy OVER 18.5 rushing yards at Bills (-110, DraftKings)
Each Thanksgiving after the main course wraps and family members depart, the leftovers are piled high into Tupperware containers and stacked in the fridge. Whether recreating the feast the next day or using turkey chunks for sandwiches, soup or chili, it’s truly a gift that keeps on giving.
When it comes to QB production, rushing yards are the fourth helping of fantasy. It’s a line-padding number that’s often tasty for gamers.
Against a Buffalo defense that’s only average at containing scurrying-apt quarterbacks, Purdy should satisfy the betting hunger.
This season, the Bills rank only No. 15 in total QB pressures. They also have allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards to passers. However, three QBs have raced past 19 ground yards against them.
Purdy is a solid instinctual runner. The 49ers quarterback calls his own number 5.1 times per game, having compiled at least 19 ground yards in six of his last eight games.
Purdy’s questionable tag due to a shoulder ailment may deter many bettors. It’s understandable. But even without all-world left tackle Trent Williams against a fairly aggressive Bills front, Purdy should read, recognize, tuck and run to what’s needed.
Apologies for the brevity. This Casa de Evans chef has to whip up a mean turkey-based casserole.
Prop season record: 13-18 -6.14 units
SGP play — Bills ML, Juan Jennings OVER 4.5 receptions, Christian McCaffrey 25+ receiving yards (+268, DraftKings)
Bills ML. As witnessed on Black Friday, the Chiefs continue to smooch Lady Luck. Undeniably, Kansas City is the luckiest franchise in the NFL. It’s not remotely close. Given its 11-1 record, Andy Reid’s decorated squad is primed for another Super Bowl run. However, the Bills, who are responsible for K.C.’s lone loss, are capable of denying the dynasty opportunity. In Week 13, Sean McDermott’s Bills should take another step toward its title goal. Though Buffalo’s D has been far from impenetrable, it does rank top-10 in both EPA per play offense and defense since Week 8. Factoring in the tailspin San Francisco is currently in — it has dropped back-to-back games — and the odds of a Bills W only increase.
Jauan Jennings OVER 4.5 receptions. The ascension of the former prep quarterback demands your undivided attention. Impressive with the rock in his hands, he has developed into a legitimate YAC monster. Whether with Purdy or Brandon Allen at the controls, Jennings has morphed into a highly reliable short-to-intermediate weapon. Lined up in the crosshairs 29 times the last three weeks, he’s had at least five receptions in each game. Overall, 10 wideouts have snagged five or more passes against Buffalo. Most importantly, Jennings is slated to draw cornerback Rasul Douglas, who has surrendered a 75.6% catch rate and 125.2 passer rating. With a top-20 standing in route win percentage, the 49ers wideout should extend his five-catch streak to four.
Christian McCaffrey 25+ receiving yards. Business in Checkdown City is booming. Whether on quick hooks, slants or flares, CMC is indeed a football factory, churning out meaningful production via the air with regularity. The do-it-all rusher has ripped off 27 or more receiving yards in each of his three games and has averaged 20.3 routes per contest. McCaffrey has sprinted out on a route on 61.0% of snaps played. In an affair where a deficit seems likely for the visiting Niners and Buffalo’s generosity to pass-catching backs should continue (the Bills have yielded THE most receiving yards to RBs at 50.7 per game), this parlay leg should flex.
SGP season record: 13-10, -0.33 units