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Nebraska (6-5) at Iowa (7-4)
Date: Friday, November 29
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
There’s nothing like some Friday-after-Thanksgiving football.
And if you eat like me, the food is still digesting by Friday night. So what better way to relax than watching some hard-nosed mid-tier Big Ten football?
The pick — Iowa team total OVER 22.5 points (-120, DraftKings)
If there’s one thing that’s been consistent for Iowa football this season, it’s that the market has consistently underrated the Hawkeyes’ scoring ability. They have gone over the game total in nine of their 11 matchups and even hit the over by themselves in four of those contests.
Once again, I think a total in Iowa’s game is too low.
The Hawkeyes have thrived at home, especially offensively. They’ve hit the over on their game total in all six of their home matchups, and they average 35.8 points at home. That’s a drastic difference from the 20.8 points they average on the road.
Iowa faces a Nebraska team that gives up 22.2 points per game, but on the road, that average rises to 28.8. This matchup seems to be about an Iowa team that excels at home against a Nebraska team that suffers defensively on the road.
The Hawkeyes offense also ranks 53rd in rushing success rate, running the ball on 65.4% of its offensive plays. That commitment to the run should help wear down the Cornhuskers’ defense as the game goes on.
Being back at home after crisscrossing the country for its last two games, Iowa should see an offensive surge. That will likely propel the Hawkeyes over this short number.
Let’s hope the market is wrong once again!
Season record: 26-15, +9.78 units