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Texas Tech (6-4) at Oklahoma State (3-7)
Date: Saturday, November 23
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN+
The pick — Texas Tech -3.5 (-110, DraftKings)
This bet is pretty simple for me: Oklahoma State has given up.
There’s really no way around it. The Cowboys’ season is a sunk cost — it’s just done.
Oklahoma State hasn’t won a game since September 14, suffering seven consecutive defeats. At 3-7, there’s not much to play for at this point with a bowl out of reach, and it’s not like the Cowboys would be good enough to compete anyway.
OK State ranks 112th in defensive success rate, 76th in points per drive and 66th in offensive success rate and has one of the worst pass defenses in the country at 121st. That last stat is especially bad news for the Cowboys because Texas Tech loves to pass the rock. The Red Raiders rank 45th in EPA per dropback, 30th in passing play percentage and 23rd in passing yards per game.
All those numbers simply mean: Oklahoma State pass defense bad, Texas Tech passing good.
The Red Raiders are also coming off a 41-27 loss against Colorado in which their offense didn’t look too bad, but their hopes were derailed by three turnovers. That shouldn’t happen against a Cowboys defense that ranks 64th in takeaways per game and 118th in takeaways over their last three contests. See what I mean about a team that’s given up?
Texas Tech is still fighting. Having already secured six wins, they’re fighting for a better bowl game, while the only bowl Oklahoma State is thinking about is which one to put their cereal in for breakfast.
Let’s bet on the Red Raiders to dominate offensively and cover the number.
Season record: 24-14, +9.00 units