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No. 16 Colorado (8-2) at Kansas (4-6)
Date: Saturday, November 23
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
The pick — Kansas +3.5 (-120, FanDuel)
Week 13 presents an opportunity to fade current Big 12 favorite Colorado, which travels to Kansas City to face Kansas at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Jayhawks had preseason expectations to be part of the wide-open conference race, despite playing their home games on the Kansas City Chiefs’ home field while their stadium is renovated in Lawrence. Kansas had a regular-season win total of eight, and it is trending toward playing at that level after back-to-back victories over Iowa State and BYU.
At 4-6, the Jayhawks have been one of the unluckiest teams in college football. They held second-half leads in losses to Illinois, UNLV, West Virginia, TCU, Arizona State and Kansas State, and they led in the fourth quarter in five of those defeats.
Kansas finally had some bounces go its way last Saturday in a 17-13 road upset of then-undefeated BYU. It wasn’t the prettiest performance, but it was still impressive for the Jayhawks to go to Provo and notch a victory at night to keep their bowl hopes alive.
I had some serious doubts about the Buffaloes before the season and even after the first month of play. However, they have greatly improved on the offensive line and on defense while benefiting from two probable top-five NFL draft picks in quarterback Shedeur Sanders and two-way star Travis Hunter.
It’s also fair to say Deion Sanders’ team has been helped by the Big 12 being down. Colorado appeared to have a tough schedule going into the season, but teams like UCF, Arizona, Texas Tech and Utah have all struggled. The Buffaloes have beaten all four.
CU’s losses came against Nebraska and Kansas State, who have both fallen off recently. The Buffs’ most impressive win was their 38-31 Week 4 victory against Baylor when they needed a Hail Mary to force overtime.
In Colorado’s most recent games, it started off slow at Texas Tech and trailed 13-0 before rallying to win 41-27. The Buffaloes also let a beat-up Utah team hang around in the fourth quarter before pulling away by padding Hunter’s Heisman Trophy resume in a 49-24 triumph.
If Colorado starts slow in Kansas City on Saturday, I would trust a well-coached Jayhawks team to play well behind dual-threat QB Jalon Daniels and running back Devin Neal.
The Big 12 race has had plenty of twists and turns recently, and I’m expecting another one on Saturday.
Season record: 16-16, -1.29 units