SIGN UP: Get the best player prop and game betting projections at BetAlytics. Use code "JUICE" for a special promo rate.
Kansas (3-6) at No. 6 BYU (9-0)
Date: Saturday, November 16
Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
The pick — Kansas +3 (-110, BetMGM)
Nothing sums up the 2024 Big 12 season better than a 9-0 team being only a three-point favorite at home against a 3-6 team. Not much separates most of the teams in the league without Texas or Oklahoma.
BYU is squarely in the national spotlight after moving up to No. 6 in the College Football Playoff rankings. However, the Cougars have encountered a lot of good fortune this season with their latest escape coming in a 22-21 victory at rival Utah. A controversial defensive holding call on fourth down extended the game and allowed quarterback Jake Retzlaff to set up Will Ferrin’s game-winning 44-yard field goal.
Meanwhile, Kansas has been one of the more unlucky teams in college football. The Jayhawks had expectations to compete for a Big 12 title with head coach Lance Leipold and returning QB Jalon Daniels, but five losses by six points or fewer derailed those hopes.
Kansas ended a five-game losing streak with a 42-14 win against Houston and played well as a 10-point underdog in a 29-27 defeat to rival Kansas State. Out of the bye last Saturday, KU jumped out to a 38-13 lead and beat Iowa State 45-36.
The Jayhawks’ best football appears to be in front of them with Daniels playing well and running back Devin Neal being effective. They have a huge opportunity to play spoiler against the teams at the top of the Big 12 standings with a trip to Provo this week and a home game next week against Colorado.
I like a team trending up in Kansas to knock off undefeated BYU — and that leads me to another bet.
The pick — No on BYU to make the College Football Playoff (-115, DraftKings)
I like this future wager in which you will only have your money tied up until December 8 for multiple reasons.
First, I believe BYU will lose on Saturday, so that would mean its only path to the College Football Playoff would be to win the Big 12 Championship if it gets there. If the Cougars made the title game, they would likely be an underdog against any opponent they face.
Even if BYU beats the Jayhawks, there’s still a chance it drops one of its final two games in the balanced Big 12. Next week, the Cougars travel to an overachieving Arizona State, which is likely getting star RB Cam Skattebo back from injury for Saturday’s trip to Kansas State. I can see a scenario in which Kenny Dillingham’s Sun Devils pull out the win against BYU regardless of what happens Saturday against Kansas.
BYU’s regular-season finale is against Houston in Provo, and that should be a victory on paper. However, first-year head coach Willie Fritz has exceeded expectations with the 4-5 Cougars, who could be playing for bowl eligibility in that final game.
What really drives home this bet is uncertainty over the CFP committee including BYU if it goes 12-0 in the regular season but loses the Big 12 Championship. The winner would get in automatically and earn a bye, while BYU could only get in as an at-large selection.
The College Football Playoff has always been a TV show driven to make as much money as possible. We saw it last season when 13-0 ACC champion Florida State was dropped out of the final rankings because starting QB Jordan Travis suffered a season-ending injury. The committee has made it clear it is willing to make drastic changes to the rankings to make sure the best teams — in its estimation — make the playoff, not the most deserving.
Maybe the expanded field would allow BYU to earn an at-large spot, but with so many potential two-loss SEC teams in the mix, I wouldn’t be surprised if the committee omitted the Cougars and chose a bigger brand from the SEC.
BYU has had an amazing season and certainly could go 13-0 with a conference title. But there are enough obstacles — on and off the field — where a -115 bet on the “no” to make the playoff offers value going into this week.
Season record: 14-15, -2.24 units