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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — Jayden Daniels UNDER 35.5 yards longest completion (-115, BetMGM)
Shake up a Busch Light, hand it to this bankroll-bleeding moron and promptly laugh gleefully at my face once the soaking commences. It's likely the gambling gods are again about to embarrass this once high-profiting gambler.
Admittedly, it’s been a very humbling past two weeks. At the peak of my free picks spreadsheet, I was sitting at an unfathomable +58.99 units. Dozens of red slashes later, I’m barely above +30 units. Stupid regression monster.
Fading a rookie quarterback equipped with a bazooka arm probably isn’t the wisest choice, but there’s substantial supportive evidence to do exactly that.
This season, Daniels has tossed a bomb of 36 or more yards seven times, but only in five of 10 games. The Commanders QB is also a very modest No. 16 in total air yards, No. 16 in air yards per attempt and No. 20 in deep-ball completion percentage.
The matchup isn’t the most accommodating. Philadelphia has consistently thwarted explosive pass plays. Through 10 weeks, the Eagles have only surrendered three vertical connections of 36 or more yards. They’ve also given up the fourth-fewest air yards of any NFL team.
Given Terry McLaurin’s downfield astuteness and Daniels’ howitzer, this slumping bettor is one wrist flick from yet another loss. However, the numbers nerd traversing lobes inside this bald head says betting the UNDER is a shrewd move.
Be kind, celestial beings who oversee certain selections. When it comes to downfield coverage, ground Eagles, ground.
Prop season record: 11-16 -5.05 units
SGP play — Eagles ML, Jalen Hurts 25+ rush yards, Noah Brown UNDER 3.5 receptions (+250, BetMGM)
Eagles ML. Nick Sirianni is probably warming up the vocal cords in preparation to berate fans — even those partisan to his cause. However, the outspoken and defensive coach shouldn’t have any reason to unleash epithets. In a mammoth contest for division bragging rights, expect the Eagles to fly high. Since Week 6, Philadelphia ranks top-five in both EPA per play offense and defense. Washington, meanwhile, is No. 4 and No. 15, respectively, in each category. With former Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore unlikely to make his Commanders debut, Jalen Hurts should bombard Washington’s secondary with his dynamic field-stretching duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Their efforts combined with Philly’s unbudging defense and Saquon Barkley’s bullying between the tackles should vault the home team to victory. In the end, batteries stay in Philly fans’ pockets.
Jalen Hurts 25+ rushing yards. Blast the Mellencamp. For the Eagles’ dual threat, this should be a layup. Due to Dan Quinn's aggressive pass rush (No. 12 pocket pressure rate at 25.6%), the Commanders have been generous to running quarterbacks, ranking No. 14 in most rushing yards allowed to the position (21.0 yards per game). In total, four QBs have bolted for at least 25 ground yards against them. Whether on Brotherly Shoves for opportunistic scrambles, Hurts has called his own number more often than any passer in the league with 10.3 rushing attempts per game. Averaging 42.0 ground yards per game, he’s accumulated at least 25 in seven of nine games. Come on Jalen, make it Hurts so good!
Noah Brown UNDER 3.5 receptions. There’s always one parlay leg that overworks sweat glands. Have a towel handy. This one is bound to make you pool up in all the wrong places. Brown, who’s netted 3.1 receptions per game, has crept under 3.5 catches in six of eight games, but he’s secured three grabs in seven of eight. Given the set number, he’s likely to again toe the line. Philly is No. 7 in dropback EPA defense over the last five weeks, but 11 wide receivers have reeled in at least four catches against the Eagles. Still, with Darius Slay as the projected primary assignment, the Commanders wideout should fall just short. “Big Play” has lived up to his nickname, giving up only a 58.6% catch rate to his assignments. Just typing this has perspiration building on the brow. Here’s to hoping Brown’s arrow points down.
SGP season record: 11-16, -1.13 units