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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — Rashod Bateman OVER 16.5 yards longest catch (-111, Caesars)
Similar to Marty Byrde, who was famously played by another Bateman (Jason) on the gripping Netflix drama “Ozark,” Rashod is always scheming. No, he isn’t trying to cleverly break away from his involvement with a Mexican drug cartel. The Ravens wide receiver is attempting to gash opposing NFL defenses hell-bent on keeping him at bay.
So far this season, Bateman has exploited soft spots in coverage and reeled in numerous Lamar Jackson bombs. The field-stretching specialist ranks top-10 among all NFL wideouts in average depth of target (13.9), yards per target (11.5) and yards per reception (17.9). His 86 total route wins (WR24), 121.4 passer rating when targeted and No. 28 win rate against man coverage are also notable. A pair of ugly drops marred his start, but he has proved to be occasionally useful.
Specific to the prop above, Bateman has made nine catches of 18 or more yards, including an 18-yard grab in the first clash against the Bengals in Week 5. In Thursday night’s rematch, I’m banking on him to add another explosive gain.
The Minnesota product’s primary projected assignment, Cameron Taylor-Britt, specializes in generosity. The Cincinnati cornerback has yielded the fifth-most yards (449) of any DB, 15.0 yards per reception and a 112.2 passer rating. Now that’s being friendly.
Throw in the Bengals' rankings of No. 11 in total air yards allowed and No. 20 in EPA pass defense, and the potential for one long Jackson-to-Bateman connection is quite buyable.
Pull a lever on Byrde’s Missouri Belle.
Prop season record: 11-14 -4.05 units
SGP play — Ravens ML, Joe Burrow OVER 1.5 passing TDs, Lamar Jackson 25+ rushing yards (+160, BetMGM)
Ravens ML. The early October bout between two of the NFL’s most prolific offenses lived up to the billing, as Baltimore emerged with a 41-38 overtime victory in Cincinnati. “Over” chasers hope the second showdown mirrors what occurred the first time around. Based on the squads’ visible defensive flaws, a repeat could happen. Dating back to last season, the Ravens have won three straight against the Bengals and are 4-1 in their last five games at M&T Bank Stadium. Given Jackson’s indisputable brilliance, the Fightin’ Edgar Allen Poes should wind their way to the winner’s circle for the seventh time in their last eight games.
Joe Burrow OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns. The last time Burrow crossed paths with Baltimore, he threw five TD passes. His 34.8 fantasy point detonation in Week 5 is his finest fantasy effort of the season. A duplication of that performance is highly unlikely, but given the consistent shortcomings of Baltimore’s secondary, the revered Bengals QB connecting on two end-zone strikes is entirely doable. The Ravens are No. 29 in pass EPA D, giving up 7.96 passing yards per attempt, 301.8 passing yards per game and 18 passing touchdowns. In total, five QBs have chucked at least two air scores against them. With his hot hand (six games of two or more TDs) and general accuracy (QB4 in adjusted completion percentage), Burrow will slice and dice Baltimore again.
Lamar Jackson 25+ rushing yards. Routinely shaking defenders in the open field, Jackson is up there with Michael Vick among the game’s greatest QB runners. He’s averaging 9.3 rushing attempts and a league-high 56.1 ground yards per game. He also has scurried his way to 25 or more yards in eight of nine contests, including 55 rushing yards in the first clash with Cincinnati. Overall, six QBs have run for at least 25 yards against the Bengals. In fact, Zac Taylor’s bunch, which ranks No. 30 in rush EPA defense, has allowed THE most rushing yards (303) to quarterbacks. Jackson should easily blaze a trail to what’s needed.
SGP season record: 10-15, -1.73 units