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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — George Pickens OVER 23.5 yards longest catch (-114, FanDuel)
Sometimes you’re the windshield. Other times you’re the bug.
Newsflash: This nincompoop often gets predictions wrong. Russell Wilson’s promotion to the Steelers’ starting lineup is one of them. Last Sunday, poetic words advocating for Justin Fields scrolled across the keyboard. For about a half, the stance seemed prophetic, but then Wilson turned back the clock and transformed into the playmaking quarterback of yesteryear.
Acrobatic catches by Pickens and equally tough grabs by Pat Freiermuth greatly assisted him. However, to give credit where it’s due, “Mr. Unlimited” far exceeded expectations in finishing with 264 passing yards and three total touchdowns.
Unlike some headline-leading individuals, this humble scribe gracefully accepted defeat.
Pickens’ production was a silver lining in Wilson’s Pittsburgh debut. Big-air moon balls chucked by the Dangerwhich placed the bendy wide receiver in an advantageous position. Unlike with Fields’ more-linear, high-velocity throws, Wilson’s parabolic paths amplified Pickens’ Cirque du Soleil contortion skills. Primarily against the Jets’ hyped cornerback, Sauce Gardner, Pickens reeled in five passes for 111 yards and a touchdown. Impressively, he corralled two passes for at least 37 yards.
On Monday against the other Big Apple rep, more bombs are in the forecast.
The Steelers welcome the New York Miniatures, a team featuring a shrunken defense. This season, Brian Daboll’s club ranks No. 19 in pass EPA D, surrendering 18 passing plays of 20-plus yards. Pickens’ primary projected assignment, cornerback Deonte Banks, has given up a 66.7% catch rate, 14.3 yards per catch, a 131.5 passer rating and the fourth-most yards (371) of any DB in the league.
Pickens has caught eight passes of at least 24 yards this year. Ranking No. 4 in total air yards, No. 4 in deep ball targets and No. 7 in yards per route run and averaging a robust 15.3 yards per reception, the Pittsburgh wideout should display his downfield skills uninhibitedly.
For once, maybe this inaccurate dunderhead will get something right.
Prop season record: 10-12 -2.75 units
SGP play — Steelers -2.5, Najee Harris 50+ rushing yards, Wan’Dale Robinson 4+ receptions (+115, ESPN Bet)
Steelers -2.5 alt spread. One creative way to increase the juice in SGPs is featuring an alternative spread instead of moneyline action. Taking the odds down from the traditional -6 line, incorporating Pittsburgh at -2.5 feels like a savvy move. Whether via the eye test or EPA data (offense: Steelers 13th, Giants: 26th; defense: Steelers fifth, Giants 21st), Pittsburgh is unmistakably the better team. Dating back to last season, the Steelers are 7-3 ATS on the standard line. Whether by a Chris Boswell boot or a more convincing number, Mike Tomlin’s crew should drown the Giants in the three rivers confluence.
Najee Harris 50+ rushing yards. With Jaylen Warren once again functioning at full strength, Pittsburgh’s effective 1-2 ground punch is finally back. Though his opportunity share might be a little lower, Harris is still thumping defenses with considerable vim and vigor. He’s compiled 3.07 yards after contact per attempt and forced 25 missed tackles, the third-most in the NFL. On a likely 16-plus rushing attempts, he should easily plow forward for 50 or more yards, a number he’s achieved five times this year. The Giants, No. 19 in rush EPA D, have yielded a friendly 5.30 yards per carry and 105.3 rushing yards per game to RBs. Overall, five rushers have reached the half-century mark against them. Harris, off back-to-back 100-yard rushing performances, becomes the latest.
Wan’Dale Robinson 4+ receptions. Robinson’s hands secrete sticky sap. His flytraps have done constant and consistent work on short routes this season. In seven games, he’s snagged at least four passes six times. Precise cutting in nature, he’s a head-nodding No. 37 in total route wins (71) and No. 35 in target separation (1.67). Bottom line: The Giants’ slippery slot man gets just enough breathing room to nickel and dime defenses. Expected to draw Beanie Bishop most often in coverage, bank on Wan'Dale shaking him at least a handful of times. The Steelers slot corner has allowed a 65.7 catch percentage and 91.4 passer rating to assignments. Overall, 10 wideouts have totaled at least four catches against Pittsburgh, many out of the slot. Pull the lever.
SGP season record: 8-14, -3.34 units