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No. 8 LSU (5-1) at Arkansas (4-2)
Date: Saturday, October 19
Time: 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Last week, I recommended a bet on LSU as a home underdog against Ole Miss. The bet was mostly a fade of the Rebels, who I thought were overhyped because of a favorable schedule. It also was a bad spot for Ole Miss, which was playing for the seventh week in a row and catching the Tigers off the bye.
LSU ended up winning 29-26 in overtime, but I felt very fortunate to win the bet. The Rebels had several chances to build a lead in the first quarter. Wide receiver Tre Harris dropped a deep ball from Jaxson Dart that could have resulted in a touchdown on the first drive, a 32-yard field goal was missed on the next drive and then Ole Miss was stopped on fourth down inside the 5-yard line.
Even after all that misfortune, the Rebels scored the first 10 points and held the lead until the Tigers tied the game with 27 seconds left on a fourth-down touchdown pass by Garrett Nussmeier. LSU’s only lead of the night was the walk-off touchdown pass from Nussmeier to Kyren Lacy in OT that resulted in the storming of the Tiger Stadium field.
LSU put itself right in the SEC race with the signature victory, but there is potential for a huge letdown Saturday when the Tigers hit the road to face a well-rested Arkansas team in Fayetteville.
The pick — Arkansas +3 (-110, BetMGM)
The Razorbacks are coming off a huge 19-14 win against Tennessee that also prompted a storming of the field. The victory came in Week 6, so they had a much-needed bye week to reset for the second half of its schedule.
Arkansas beat the Volunteers as a 14-point underdog in a game in which it was the better team and the result wasn’t flukey. The loud crowd helped give the Razorbacks a home-field advantage, and they’ll have a similar edge against LSU, which will face a ranked Texas A&M squad next week.
Nussmeier made big-time throws against Ole Miss last Saturday, but he completed only 22 of 51 attempts and tossed two interceptions. The Tigers also struggle to run the ball, and their defense has a lot of flaws.
I like Sam Pittman’s Arkansas to win this rivalry game, but take the +3 if available.
Season record: 10-8, +1.52 units