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California (3-2) at No. 22 Pittsburgh (5-0)
Date: Saturday, October 12
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Can California snap itself awake for a 12:30 p.m. PT kickoff after a heartbreaking loss in Berkeley last week?
Traveling cross-country for the third time in five weeks, the Golden Bears are in a tough spot after giving up a 25-point lead to Miami last Saturday night.
Not only does Cal have to deal with losing a huge lead in prime time while “College GameDay” was in town, but it also has to pack its bags for a five-hour flight to Pittsburgh to face a red-hot Panthers team.
In a situation like this, I’m an eager beaver in laying a field-goal spread.
The pick — Pittsburgh -3 (-110, Circa)
Unfortunately for Pitt bettors like me, the line would likely be closer to 2 if the Golden Bears had managed to hold on to their large fourth-quarter lead in a shocking 39-38 defeat to the Hurricanes. Unfortunately, Cal could not, so a field goal has to be laid. That is still fine with me because this is a tough spot for Justin Wilcox’s Bears.
Cal was a very popular spread pick with GameDay in town last Saturday, especially considering Miami had to travel across the country for a late 10:30 p.m. ET start. While the Bears did cover the 10-point spread, the brutal loss still stung much more.
Plus, the numbers tell an interesting story.
What was a close loss on the scoreboard was really a Canes-dominated game. Miami out-gained Cal 575-370 and had a positive Net Success Rate of 0.20, fifth-best for Week 6. Additionally, the Hurricanes had a postgame win expectancy of 95.9%, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly.
Now, after facing Miami’s No. 1-ranked offense in yards per game, Cal must contend with the fourth-ranked Pittsburgh offense, which is led by Alabama transfer quarterback Eli Holstein. There’s a good chance the Bears buckle again defensively with the Panthers offense averaging 521.6 yards and 45.6 points and the Cal defense ranking 78th in opponent success rate. I’m also concerned about the Bears’ struggles to get off the field in late-down situations, where they rank a poor 73rd in opponent third/fourth down success.
Pitt has been a solid team at covering the spread this season and will be home against a deflated Cal team dealing with a long flight and a semi-early body clock game. As square as this pick may seem, I’m taking the Panthers to take care of business on Saturday.
Season record: 12-10, +2.05 units