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No. 2 Georgia (3-0) at No. 4 Alabama (3-0)
Date: Saturday, September 28
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
One of the best parts of the SEC going away from the two-division format is the chance for more regular-season games between Georgia and Alabama. While the storied programs have played three times for the SEC title and twice for the national championship since 2018, they haven’t had frequent fall meetings on each other's campus.
The last time the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide met in the regular season was in 2020, when there were a lot of moving parts to the college football landscape due to COVID-19. Before that, they faced each other in 2015 when Nick Saban’s Alabama dominated a Georgia squad coached by Mark Richt in Athens.
A new chapter of the rivalry will be written this Saturday in Tuscaloosa. The Tide are no longer led by Saban, who won five of six meetings against his former protege Kirby Smart.
Last season, Alabama beat Georgia in the SEC title game to knock the Bulldogs out of the College Football Playoff. UGA was looking to win a third-straight national title, and the Tide were in a so-called “down year” due to their high standards.
Now, Alabama is coached by Kalen DeBoer, who has had success everywhere he’s coached and is one of the best offensive minds in college football. I’m very intrigued how DeBoer will fare in his first game against Smart and if Smart’s struggles against the Tide were because of Saban’s presence.
The pick — Georgia ML (-125, BetMGM)
Both teams are 3-0 coming off bye weeks, so players will be fresh and fully prepared.
Late last week, the sportsbook Circa opened this game as a pick ‘em, and Georgia took the initial money. As soon as the point spread hit Bulldogs -3, there was resistance on the Alabama side, and it appears the line will settle in a range where Georgia is a small road favorite of less than a field goal.
Going into the season, I considered the Bulldogs the best team in the nation because of their continuity on offense with returning quarterback Carson Beck and the depth across the roster from stacking top recruiting classes in multiple years.
Georgia was very impressive in the second half of a 34-3 season-opening win over Clemson, but it had some issues in its last game before the bye. The Bulldogs beat Kentucky 13-12 in a game where I bet on Georgia to cover a first-half spread of -13.5, and they couldn’t even score that many points for the entire game.
However, struggling in an early conference game on the road has been a common occurrence for Smart’s team in the previous two seasons. The Bulldogs had close calls against Missouri in 2022 and against Auburn last year, but they went on to go undefeated in the regular season both years.
The scare in Lexington could end up being a positive for Georgia because Smart can use it as motivation for his talented group to play its best football this week.
Alabama has victories over Western Kentucky, South Florida and Wisconsin in DeBoer’s first three games with the program. The Tide beat South Florida 42-16 in Week 2, but their lead was only five points with six minutes left before three late Tide touchdowns made the final score look better.
The next week, Alabama traveled north to Madison and beat Wisconsin 42-10. I’m not going to put too much stock into that performance because I’m not high on the Badgers this season and their QB Tyler Van Dyke tore his ACL on the opening drive.
I still believe the Crimson Tide are one of the best teams in the country and should make the 12-team playoff, but you can poke holes in the quality of their wins.
That leads me to a bet on Georgia to win at a very reasonable price in the first of hopefully many games between Kirby Smart and Kalen DeBoer.
Season record: 7-6, +0.43 units