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Kansas (1-2) at West Virginia (1-2)
Date: Saturday, September 21
Time: Noon ET
TV: ESPN2
There was a TON of preseason hype around Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels. Sure, he had a history of inconsistency, but his ceiling was so tantalizing that there were whispers of a possible Heisman Trophy run.
Unfortunately for him and Kansas, that inconsistency and regression from last season have hit like a ton of bricks. Despite the struggles, though, Saturday’s road game is a good spot to get some points, so if you want a good “buy low” option this week, let me sell you on one of the Heartland’s finest teams.
The pick — Kansas +2.5 (-106, BetRivers)
Let’s just start by saying the offensive play for Kansas has been disappointing. Daniels has thrown an interception in every game this season and is coming off two straight games with two or more picks. With the turnovers have come losses. What started as a hopeful season — with the Jayhawks ranked 22nd in the preseason AP poll — has turned into a 1-2 start with a struggling team.
Now, Kansas faces a tough environment at West Virginia. But with that tough environment come points for a Jayhawks team that is better than how it has played.
A lot of KU’s advanced stats don’t look bad. The Jayhawks’ net EPA in last week’s 23-20 loss to UNLV was actually positive, and their postgame win expectancy was a staggering 87%, according to ESPN college football writer Bill Connelly. In fact, this is the second time Kansas has had a postgame win expectancy of over 50% in defeat, as its 23-17 loss at Illinois two weeks ago produced a 57% postgame win expectancy.
The Jayhawks have had a lot of chances to win games. They just faced unfortunate circumstances. What I see is a team that’s good enough to compete but gets stuck with some unfortunate luck.
The Mountaineers are coming off a 38-34 defeat against Pittsburgh in the Backyard Brawl, one of their biggest games of the year. So in what might be a bit of a letdown spot for West Virginia, Kansas could take advantage. Daniels’ turnover and interception issues might be a non-factor against a WVU pass defense that ranks 121st in EPA per dropback and 100th in takeaways per game out of 134 FBS teams.
With KU facing an easier defense and the market offering a decent number, I’m backing the Jayhawks to rebound and finally play up to their high preseason expectations.
Season record: 6-6, -0.30 units