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No. 6 Tennessee (3-0) at No. 15 Oklahoma (3-0)
Date: Saturday, September 21
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
The headline game of Week 4 is Oklahoma’s first-ever SEC game at Tennessee. The big storyline is Volunteers head coach Josh Heupel returning to a school he is very familiar with.
Heupel played quarterback at Oklahoma, leading the Sooners to the 2000 national title. He also served as an assistant under Bob Stoops, the coach he played for, until 2014 when Heupel and co-offensive coordinator Jay Norvell were fired.
Eventually, Heupel found success in the coaching ranks. He was the UCF head coach from 2018 to 2020 before landing at Tennessee, where has schemed fast-paced offenses with the ability to score points in bunches.
Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables is very familiar with Heupel, as both worked on the Sooners staff under Stoops. Venables is a defensive-minded coach, and he’s going to need his defense to play at a high level to contain Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava.
During the summer when this game was offered at a variety of sportsbooks, Oklahoma was a small favorite. Now, Tennessee is a seven-point road favorite because of the way both teams are trending.
The pick — UNDER 29.5 first-half points (-115, FanDuel)
I considered Oklahoma +7 because I believe the point spread has moved too much in Tennessee's direction. But my favorite bet is for the game to be lower scoring, which correlates to liking the Sooners side.
If Oklahoma is going to cover the point spread, it’ll likely be a lower-scoring game in which the Sooners defense frustrates Iamaleava in his first true road start. I can see a path of Venables getting the better of Heupel at least through the first 30 minutes.
I also don’t love what I’ve seen from Oklahoma’s offense so far. QB Jackson Arnold has had growing pains and now faces a defense that has a future NFL first-round pick in defensive end James Pearce.
I prefer to isolate the first-half under instead of the full-game total of 57.5 because, if Tennessee's offense figures it out, Heupel could run up the score against his alma mater. He didn’t leave Norman on exactly the best terms.
However, I’m expecting the Sooners to keep this game close. A strong defensive effort by OU will help keep the first half under the total.
Season record: 6-4, +1.53 units