Mississippi State at Arizona State
Date: Saturday, September 7
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
It’s the Low Expectations Bowl! It’s a Week 2 game featuring two rebuilding programs in the desert, where I like the visiting team’s chances for an upset.
The pick — Mississippi State +6.5 (-108, DraftKings)
Situationally, there’s a lot to like about this matchup. I know the Sun Devils had an impressive 48-7 win against Wyoming, but there are some caveats to consider.
The primary one is that the Cowboys are significantly less talented than ASU and Mississippi. Additionally, it was 99 degrees at kickoff, so a less talented team was playing in scorching weather it was not used to. Naturally, Arizona State dominated.
Now the Sun Devils have an SEC team coming to town, one that endured the scorching heat and humidity of Mississippi in August. The high temperatures at kickoff on Saturday won’t be nearly as detrimental for the Bulldogs, and on top of that, the talent level they bring to Tempe is much higher than Wyoming’s.
Not much is expected of these teams, whose win totals hover around four. Also, both programs are led by head coaches who are trying to make their mark at the Division I level.
Given the similarities, I can’t ignore the 6.5 points on the board. I have to take them. I might even consider taking the Mississippi State money line, just out of spite.
In a 56-7 rout of Eastern Kentucky last week, the Bulldogs allowed only 4.4 yards per pass play and 126 rushing yards. They also had a tremendous offensive showing with 450 total yards and three touchdown passes from Blake Shapen. And that team is a 6.5-point underdog?
The fact that Mississippi State’s season-opening win is somehow considered significantly “worse” than ASU’s victory over Wyoming doesn’t make sense to me.
First-year Bulldogs head coach Jeff Lebby has brought in some talented players through the transfer portal. He has a Mississippi State team that’s just as talented as Arizona State, if not more talented.
Give me the Bulldogs and all the cowbell shaking that comes with it.
Season record: 3-1-1, +1.85 units