Each week, the Noise highlights under-started names who he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must have started in fewer than 60 percent of Yahoo leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week. Scoring thresholds (0.5 PPR) – QB: 18 fantasy points; RB: 12 fantasy points (10 for shockers); WR: 11 fantasy points; TE: 10 fantasy points.
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Chris Godwin, Buccaneers
| Start pct. | 38% on Yahoo |
| Matchup | vs. Commanders |
| BetMGM line | Buccaneers -3 |
| BetMGM total | 43.5 |
| BetAlytics projection | 5.6 rec, 60.5 yds, 0.33 TD, 10.08 pts |
The thunder you hear off in the distance is a sign that Tampa Bay’s slot God is about to bring a torrent of receptions and possible yards in Sunday’s opener against Washington.
Coming off his worst fantasy season since 2018, the 28-year-old veteran, in the eyes of many, is a rapidly dissipating former PPR superstar. However, if you analyze the under-the-surface data, only one conclusion can be drawn: misuse. Registering most snaps outside the hashmarks, Godwin lined up in the slot an uncharacteristic 32.1% of the time. As a result, his catchable target rate (WR53) suffered.
Despite his lacking production, Godwin did almost everything in his power to accumulate numbers. He dusted many defenders (WR8 in route win percentage) — particularly in mano y mano situations (WR2 in win rate vs. man coverage) — and racked the YAC in the open field (WR17 in total YAC). His 130 targets and 83 receptions were also excellent. The harshest drag? Touchdowns. Despite ranking WR22 in total red-zone targets, Godwin hauled in only a pair of scores. Call it anomalous.
Baker Mayfield will have to improve on his inside-the-20 throws (QB20 in red-zone completion percentage in 2023), but he and Godwin could swashbuckle Washington’s penetrable secondary on Sunday. Last season, Commanders slot CB Benjamin St-Juste surrendered 1.14 yards per snap (18th-most among eligible DBs), a 71.4% catch rate and a 99.2 passer rating. Juicy.
Bring the lightning, Godwin.
Fearless Forecast: 6 receptions, 65 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 18.5 fantasy points.
Week 1 Bonus Flames
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks
| Start pct. | 13% on Yahoo |
| Matchup | vs. Broncos |
JSN, one of the buzziest young wideouts across NFL training camps, attracted considerable attention from fantasy fanboys. Yes, his rookie effort was rather uneventful. Last year, he finished outside the top 50 in 0.5 per game scoring and ranked No. 60 or lower in yards per route run, aDOT, yards per target and yards per reception. Still, his WR22 standing in total YAC and top-20 mark in route win percentage were silver linings. With Tyler Lockett (leg) banged up, Smith-Njigba could bust out in a major way in Sunday’s opener against Denver. Broncos slot CB Ja’Quan McMillian yielded 1.20 yards per snap, a 109.7 passer rating and a whopping eight TDs on 65 targets in 2023. Weigh the Seattle receiver's services heavily in the FLEX or WR3 spots in 12-team and deeper leagues.
Fearless Forecast: 4 receptions, 55 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 13.5 fantasy points.
Isaiah Likely, TE, Ravens
| Start pct. | 3% on Yahoo |
| Matchup | at Chiefs |
In Thursday night’s NFL opener, Baltimore’s reported chess piece could operate like an uninhibited queen. If reports out of Charm City are true, the tight end is expected to see action out wide and in the slot and even line up in the backfield. A possible poor man’s Dalton Kincaid, the 6-foot-5 Likely is sure to create mismatches. Last season, he led all qualifying TEs in QB passer rating (147.0) when targeted. He also ranked top-10 at the position in yards per target (10.3), yards per reception (13.7) and fantasy points per target (2.53). As this scribe’s lone TE in a 16-team fantasy league, we need the Raven to average far more than the 15.4 routes per game logged last year. Color outside the lines, Todd Monken.
Fearless Forecast: 3 receptions, 32 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 11.7 fantasy points.