In what may be one of the sneakier good games of the weekend, the 8.5-point spread in West Virginia vs. Penn State is too weird for me to like either side.
There’s a lot of continuity with both teams — plus they played each other last season — so I’ll be eying the total on Saturday.
The pick — Penn State vs. West Virginia UNDER 51.5 points (-110, DraftKings)
Penn State beat West Virginia 38-15 last year, and there are a couple of things to consider from that game.
First: The Nittany Lions scored a last-second, meaningless touchdown for the final margin. Until that point, the total was hitting under the proposed number.
Second: The Mountaineers defense has seen some improvement from 2023. They bring back some pieces of a defensive front that led the Big 12 in sacks last season, and they have a quality veteran presence in the secondary, which could make deep passing attempts difficult for PSU quarterback Drew Allar.
Third: To twist a phrase from “Forrest Gump,” these teams “will be RUNNING” from the first quarter on. Last year, West Virginia ranked sixth in the country in run percentage (62.6%), while Penn State ran on over 53% of its plays. More running means more chewed-off clock and fewer chunk plays.
The continuity should help, too. Mountaineers quarterback Garrett Greene is back after running for 708 yards and 13 touchdowns last season, and behind him, he’ll have returning running back Jahiem White.
All of this is to say West Virginia’s strategy likely will be to limit turnovers from a swarming PSU defense and run … the … ball.
On top of that, the Nittany Lions defense will come to play. While Penn State lost defensive coordinator Manny Diaz to Duke along with six starters, it brought in former Indiana head coach and defensive guru Tom Allen. Speaking as an IU fan, Allen wasn’t the best head coach, but when his only task is scheming up the defense and motivating players, he works wonders.
Both teams should have a heavy run game against an improved Mountaineers defense and a physical Nittany Lions unit. Put together, all of that signals an under bet for me.
Season record: 0-0-1, 0.00 units