The 2024 college football season kicks off Saturday, August 24. Nate Jacobson and Ben Wittenstein preview the major conferences with their predictions and best bets.
Which team is the best bet to go OVER their regular-season win total?
Ben’s pick — Indiana OVER 5.5 wins (-130, DraftKings)
- DraftKings offer: Bet $5 and get $150 in Bonus Bets
“Oh look, Ben is supporting Indiana blindly again.” The haters indeed have it out for my love of IU, but there’s a legitimate reason to think the Hoosiers will go bowling this season — the arrival of Curt Cignetti.
With a 52-9 record at James Madison, Cignetti was one of the hottest coaching candidates on the market. In hiring the 63-year-old, Indiana gets a motivator and a strategist. He’s brought over a handful of high-ranking transfers from the Dukes and retained a talented Hoosiers squad.
Schedule-wise, Indiana has to be happy that it doesn’t have to deal with Big Ten divisions anymore, meaning no more yearly appointments with Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan. The Hoosiers should get six victories against FIU, Western Illinois, Charlotte and Purdue at home and on the road at Northwestern and Michigan State. There’s even a chance they sneak out a win at UCLA and perhaps at home against Nebraska.
The point is, there are plenty of paths to six victories for a rejuvenated IU team with a new head coach. The Hoosiers should be poised to go bowling come December.
Nate’s pick — USC OVER 7 wins (-140, DraftKings)
- DraftKings offer: Bet $5 and get $150 in Bonus Bets
I had trouble picking a team outside the top two, so I’ll take a shot on what appears to be a buy-low opportunity for a Lincoln Riley program.
Riley has coached three Heisman Trophy winners in Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Caleb Williams But after a 7-5 record with Williams in 2023, USC’s stock is much lower than expected.
The Trojans have to play a more physical style of football in the Big Ten. Also, their schedule is absolutely brutal. They open in Las Vegas against LSU and close at home against Notre Dame, and their Big Ten slate is highlighted by contests at Michigan and against Penn State at home.
However, USC would have to win six games or fewer for me to lose this bet. And I still think Riley is a good enough coach to get the Trojans to at least seven victories.
USC will have a downgrade at QB in going from Williams, the NFL Draft’s No. 1 pick, to Miller Moss. But Riley’s decision to not add a QB from the transfer portal says a lot about what he thinks of Moss, who threw six touchdown passes against Louisville in the Holiday Bowl.
The Trojans’ weakness the last two seasons was their defense. They got a huge upgrade in coaching by plucking D’Anton Lynn from cross-town rival UCLA. If the defense can slightly improve, that will be a big boost to USC’s prospects.
Which team is the best bet to go UNDER their regular-season win total?
Ben’s pick — Northwestern UNDER 4.5 wins (+105, BetMGM)
- BetMGM offer: $1500 in Bonus Bets paid back
The Wildcats have a lot of questions. They had a surprising 2023 season in finishing 8-5, but I have a hard time seeing their luck and success continuing into 2024, especially with all the youth.
David Braun certainly seems like the right coach to lead the post-Pat Fitzgerald years, but with young coaching hires and some holes to fill on offense, I’m skeptical.
Defensively, the Cats should be formidable, especially on the D-line, but they might struggle offensively, even with Vanderbilt and Mississippi State transfer QB Mike Wright. The offensive line is very inexperienced, and there are yet to be any reliable playmakers for Wright to go to.
Schedule-wise, I see only three true wins with trips to Michigan, Washington and Iowa proving to be landmines. Plus, with stadium renovations underway, the Wildcats will play at a makeshift stadium on the shores of Lake Michigan, making it feel less like a home-field advantage and more like a large summer practice session.
A lot has to go right for Northwestern to reach five wins. After an unexpected positive 2023 campaign, the Cats might be due for some regression.
Nate’s pick — Iowa UNDER 8 wins (+115, DraftKings)
- DraftKings offer: Bet $5 and get $150 in Bonus Bets
Iowa has received a lot of support in the regular-season win total market this summer, but I disagree with the optimism for the Hawkeyes. When their win total opened at 7.5 in the spring, I thought that number was right and didn’t have much of an opinion on it. Now that their win total is at 8, I am willing to bet the under. And if they finish 9-3 or better, I’ll tip my cap to Kirk Ferentz’s squad.
One reason Iowa’s over has been steamed during the last few months is its schedule. The Hawkeyes have one game against the Big Ten’s top teams, and that’s against Ohio State. Other than that they could be a favorite in the other 11 regular-season games, but they won’t be a big favorite in most of them.
What I’m not buying is Iowa’s offense making enough improvement from dead last in the country under new offensive coordinator Tim Lester, who took over for Brian Ferentz, the head coach’s son. The scheme under Ferentz was horrific. The Hawkeyes offense lacks talent at skill positions, and their offensive line isn’t as good as it used to be. I also don’t trust QB Cade McNamara to stay healthy, and the Hawkeyes coaches must not either after bringing in Northwestern QB Brendan Sullivan from the transfer portal.
Iowa does have a strong defense, but I don’t know if its high level of play is sustainable if the offense continues to struggle. An 8-4 record would be very good for the Hawkeyes, but I believe seven or fewer wins is far more likely than nine or more. So I’m willing to tie up my money until the day after Thanksgiving on under eight regular-season wins.