The 2024 tennis season is shaping up to be the year of Carlos Alcaraz.
The 21-year-old Spaniard won his first-ever French Open in June and captured his second Wimbledon crown two weeks ago. Now he’s back in Paris as a first-time Olympian to chase Summer Games gold on his favorite red clay. Sportsbooks list Alcaraz as the tournament favorite (-125 at DraftKings) over Novak Djokovic (+340 at FanDuel), the 24-time major champion and three-time French Open winner who’s looking to add an Olympic title to his resume.
Alcaraz makes his Olympic debut on Saturday against Lebanon’s Hady Habib, a last-minute Olympic entry due to player withdrawals. Habib, a 25-year-old who played his college tennis at Texas A&M, is the longest of tournament long shots (+50000 at BetMGM).
Having gone 2-2 with Alcaraz match props this year, I’m giving him another go for Saturday’s pick on the first day of Olympic tennis competition.
The pick — Hady Habib vs. Carlos Alcaraz UNDER 16.5 total games (+110, DraftKings)
Habib is a regular on the Futures and Challengers circuits, where he’s posted a 16-10 record on clay in 2024. The question is whether the No. 275 player in the world can punch above his weight against the reigning king of clay.
Alcaraz can suffer lapses in concentration in the middle of matches at major tournaments, but Olympic competition is best-of-three sets. The shorter format should keep Alcaraz focused on the task at hand, and he should feel energized being back at Roland Garros.
The match shouldn’t be close. Alcaraz is a -10000 favorite, while Habib is a +3000 underdog. It should be a straight-sets domination for the world’s third-ranked player — hopefully nothing more than 6-2, 6-2.
Tennis record: 5-7, -2.78 units