The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Houston Texans.
Fantasy value — Joe Mixon, RB (ADP: 60.93, RB15)
In his new digs, Mixon is fixin’ to dole out consistent punishment. At 28, he has at least a year or three left operating as a bell cow. The once-workhorse Dameon Pierce is clearly a second fiddle. It’s true DeMeco Ryans sang the young back’s praises this offseason, remarking the slimmed-down Pierce and Mixon could form a lethal “one-two punch,” but it's likely classic coachspeak. You don’t trade for and sign Mixon to a $27 million extension to play in a full-blown committee.
In his last season with the Bengals, the seven-year veteran logged 78.9% of the opportunity share, the third-highest mark in the NFL. His workload may diminish slightly, but his versatility as a runner and reliability as a receiver point to approximately 20 touches per game.
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
Glancing at Mixon’s advanced analytics profile from 2023 may induce vomiting. He was RB50 in YAC per attempt (2.51), RB29 in missed tackles forced (31), RB35 in yards created per touch (3.20) and RB13 in total stuffed runs (41). Again, stomach churning.
Still, despite last season’s tepidness, Mixon’s offensive environment and presumed three-down workload imply a potential 1,300 total yards and double-digit scores this year. If he stays healthy and lives up to this scribe’s expectations, cracking the RB top 10 is very conceivable.
Prop pick — C.J. Stroud OVER 26.5 passing touchdowns (-130, Caesars)
- Caesars offer: Get your first bet back up to $1000
This high-volume voice is a loud and proud member of Team Stroud. His cannonball splash last season as a rookie is merely the beginning of what could be a storied career, one filled with consistent QB1 returns for fantasy managers and profitable cashouts for betting backers.
Speaking to the latter, Stroud’s passing touchdowns prop at Caesars is an obscene value. Shop around at other major sportsbooks, and it’s a full tick or two higher. Sure, the plus money juice on the OVER action reflects that, but even at a heavier -130, the prop above screams “TAKE ME!”
The Texans have the seventh-hardest projected schedule for fantasy QBs, but the favorable situation staves off any idea of a Stroud sophomore slump. Disagree? Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz and Mixon comprise one of the best arsenals in the biz. And in an offense that called “pass” nearly 60% of the time, the former Ohio State Buckeye is unlikely to crack. Adding to the spiciness is Houston’s projected bottom-half defense that will only enhance the chances.
Stroud averaged 33.3 passing attempts per game last season. This year, that number could swell into the 37-40 range.
The 22-year-old ranked only No. 26 in red-zone completion percentage in 2023. Considering his deep-ball efficiency, though, he could surpass 30 TDs due to Diggs’ sure-handed presence and the QB’s general growth. Stroud’s upside is enormous.
Team lean — Texans OVER 9.5 wins (-145, BetMGM)
- BetMGM offer: $1500 in Bonus Bets paid back
Houston’s second-hardest projected strength of schedule immediately raises questions whether the team can deliver on the hype. In short, heck yes it can.
The offense is going to score early and often. Believing that, the Texans at +2000 on FanDuel to lead the NFL in total points scored is a salivating wager. Reaching 30 points could become routine, especially with defensive coordinator Matt Burke’s questionable unit.
ESPN’s Mike Clay gives Stroud and friends a 50% or greater win probability in a dozen games. If Houston even splits the coin-flip contests — vs. Buffalo, at Green Bay, at Jacksonville and vs. Miami — it should secure 10 or more victories.